There was a lot more stability on MoSSBODS this week, but still a fair bit of turbulence on MoSHBODS, as the former re-ranked just nine teams and only two by more than a single spot, and the latter re-ranked 14 teams and six by more than a single spot.
Read MoreWinners and margins proved a little harder to forecast this week, but the MoS trio still returned mostly pleasing results relative to the bookmakers.
Read MoreAnd it’s Carlton by 3 points to end the round for MoSHPlay.
MoSHPlay has switched to Hawks by 1 point..
MoSHPlay is now Essendon by only 9 points.
Just minor tweaks for the two upcoming games, which leaves MoSHPlay at Dogs by 17 and Dockers by 5.
Pies by 27 points. Final answer.
It’s the Swans by 39 points, according to MoSHPlay..
MoSHPlay is now, essentially, calling the Cats v Lions game a draw.
Nothing too outrageous from MoSHPlay in the round’s other games at this point, although it is siding with the majority, and against its siblings, in the Suns v Blues game.
MoSHPlay finishes at Melbourne by 18 points.
MoSHPlay’s opening bid on the Thursday game is Melbourne by 21 points.
On average, the MoS twins are seeing lower totals this week than are the bookmakers, but there is quite some variability on a game-to-game basis.
Read MoreThe original blog for Round 4 was accidentally overwritten, so I’ve here reposted the key images.
MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS re-ranked the vast majority of teams this week, though both left Melbourne in top spot.
The shuffling just below Melbourne resulted in an identical set of teams in positions 2nd through 5th: Brisbane Lions, Geelong, Western Bulldogs, and St Kilda.
Read MoreFor the first time since I started trying to include player information in my forecasts, it seems this year is the one where it’s proven most useful in predicting margins and results, but not to the extent where it’s rendered useless the wagering abilities of the player-agnostic models.
Read MoreThe long-awaited markets for the West Coast v Fremantle game are now up, which allows us, firstly, to complete the round’s forecasting.
Read MoreEagles by 3 points, according to MoSHPlay
Lions by 38 points now, according to MoSHPlay.
It’s GWS by 15 points, according to MoSHPlay
Port Adelaide by 8 is MoSHPlay’s final bid.
MoSHPlay now at Dees by 26 points.
Nothing too outrageous from MoSHPlay at this point for the remaining games in the round, though it is the most-extreme Predictor in the Giants v Gold Coast, and Saints v Roos games.
MoSHPlay finishes at Dogs by 3 points.
It’s the Dogs by the tiniest margin, according to MoSHPlay
We’re still waiting for the bookmakers to show their hands in the West Coast v Fremantle game but, in the eight games we know about, MoS and bookmaker opinions are generally quite similar, with the very notable exception of the GWS v Gold Coast game.
Read MoreThe bookmakers are still yet to post markets for the West Coast v Fremantle derby but, since there’s no way of telling how long it will be until they do so, let’s take a look at what we do know about the eight other games.
Read MoreSome more reshuffling this week, for MoSSBODS mostly mid-table, but for MoSHBODS more comprehensively.
Nonetheless, Melbourne retains top spot and Geelong 2nd under both Systems
Read MoreTwo-thirds of the round’s favourites snaffled the four points this week, while only three of the wins were sized six goals or greater.
Read MoreDockers by 1 now, according to MoSHPlay..
MoSHPlay is staying contrarian on the Tigers v Giants game and finishes at Giants by 9 points..
MoSHPlay thinks it’s deciphered the implications of the Eagles’ changes and has finished at North by 16 points, a 9-point shift from MoSHBODS’ team-based assessment.
MoSHPlay has landed on Port by 11 points and Melbourne by 21 points.
MoSHPlay has switched to the Lions and expects them to win by 2 points.
Pies by 17, according to MoSHPlay.
MoSHPlay still has the Swans as favourites, but only just.
MoSHPlay, for now, finds itself as the extreme predictor in the Dons v Lions, Roos v Eagles, and Dockers v Saints games.
With the final teams announced, MoSHPlay finishes at Dogs by 10 points
MoSHPlay’s opening bid (after guessing which of the emergencies will make the final 23) is Dogs by 9 points
The MoS twins, again, are foreshadowing larger totals than are the bookmakers this week, with the bookmakers’ average over two goals under last week’s recorded 176 points per game, and the MoS twins two to five points higher.
Read MoreLast week was fairly encouraging, and this week promises a number of contests that could legitimately go either way.
Read MoreThe MoS twins are still parameterised in such a way that they make some of their largest adjustments in the early parts of the season, as evidenced by the Geelong, Gold Coast, Carlton and Fremantle climbs this week, and the matching Essendon, West Coast, and Adelaide falls.
Read MoreAs a statistical modeller, you start every season wondering if the improvements you think you’ve made to your models are actually improvements or, instead, just ill-advised renovations to things that were perfectly functional as they were.
At this point, I think it’s fair to say that the changes have, at the very least, not rendered the models useless (as low as a bar as that might be).
Read MoreEagles by 4, according to MoSHPlay.
MoSHPlay ends at Adelaide by 15 points.
Hawks by 16, according to MoSHPlay.
With the final team announcements, MoSHPlay has switched to the Giants, but only by 1 point.
The smallest of tweaks to the Cats’ victory margin. MoSHPlay now has it as Cats by 4.
Nothing particularly outrageous from MoSHPlay in its most recent set of forecasts, which are based on the currently named 22s plus the first of those named on the interchange. At this stage, it is the extreme forecaster only in the Eagles v Suns game where it has the home team winning by just 7 points.
MoSHPlay is broadly in agreement (at this stage) with MoSHBODS about the Blues v Tigers game
MoSHPlay, with the announcement of the final teams, has shaved a point off the Dees expected victory margin.
MoSHPlay (having reconsidered) likes the Dees’ and Dogs’ lineups about equally, and so has the home team winning by about 2 goals.
In a rare display of optimism, the MoS forecasters, overall, have higher average Total forecasts than the bookmakers’, as well as some quite different opinions about what individual teams will score to reach those Totals.
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