2021 - Round 20 - Update 2
/Well, here’s an update I didn’t expect to need to do.
Read More2021 - Round 20 : MoSHPlay Update
/SUNDAY 5:30PM UPDATE
After quite the weekend, MoSHPlay finishes with a forecast of Port Adelaide by 10 points
SATURDAY 10:30PM UPDATE
Just an update to show MoSHPlay’s new forecasts after the venue changes.
SATURDAY 12:30PM UPDATE
MoSHPlay has it as Cats by 31 points.
FRIDAY 7PM UPDATE
Saints by 10 now, according to MoSHPlay
THURSDAY 9PM UPDATE
Nothing too outrageous from MoSHPlay so far, with only one of its margin forecasts the most extreme of all the Margin Predictors.
2021 - Round 20 : Overs/Unders
/Forecast rain for a number of games has, I think, dampened the scoring expectations of the bookmakers, which has led to the MoS twins recording average expected totals about half a goal higher than those bookmakers.
Read More2021 - Round 20 - Update
/Here are the final forecasts for the MoS models.
Read More2021 - Round 20 : The Triumph of Hope Over Experience
/So far, we have confirmed venues and bookmaker markets for seven of the upcoming Round 20 games, so let’s take a look at them.
Read More2021 - Team Ratings After Round 19
/With the Dees v Dogs result virtually as expected in terms of scoring shots and hybrid score, the Dogs retained top spot on both Systems this week, although Geelong managed to squeeze past the Dees and take 2nd spot on MoSHBODS.
Further down the order, on MoSSBODS we had the Brisbane Lions leaping into 3rd ahead of Geelong, North Melbourne taking 16th from Hawthorn, and GWS climbing five spots into 9th pushing each of Carlton, Fremantle, St Kilda, Collingwood, and Gold Coast down a spot. And, on MoSHBODS, GWS climbed three spots into 9th and St Kilda one spot into 10th, pushing Carlton and Fremantle down two spots each into 11th and 12th respectively, while North Melbourne took 16th from Hawthorn.
Those moves have left the two Systems agreeing about 1st, 5th through 9th, and 13th through 18th, and disagreeing by no more than two spots about any team.
Read More2021 - Round 19 Results - What's Done Can Very Much Be Undone
/It was a mostly uneventful week on head-to-head tipping, as the nine Head-to-Head Tipsters all scored either five or six from nine, which left MoSSBODS_Marg two tips clear atop the Leaderboard and now on 107 from 162 (66%) ahead of four other Tipsters on 105 from 162.
Read More2021 - Round 19 : MoSHPlay Update
/THURSDAY 8PM UPDATE
Here’s MoSHPlay’s early thoughts on Round 19. Nothing particularly controversial - in fact, if anything a little more conservative than the twins.nough to have MoSHPlay, unlike MoSHBODS, going with the favourites: Cats by 4
Read More2021 - Round 19 : Overs/Unders
/It’s something more of a traditional round this week, with the MoS twins’ all-game expected total score coming in about four to five points lower than the bookmakers’.
Read More2021 - Round 19 : Who Knows?
/It’s getting increasingly difficult to keep up with the intra-week changes, but this week, at least for now, we do have a full set of matchups and confirmed venues - and it’s only Wednesday night.
In those matches, we have eight home team favourites (where home is more designated than geographical in some cases), which stands in stark contrast to last week where we had only a single home team favourite. Bookmaker-expected victory margins range from 2 to 29 points, with the all-game average coming in at just under 14 points per game.
Read More2021 - Team Ratings After Round 18
/More dropped Rating points for the Dogs again this week, but they remain the top-rated team on both Systems as the Dees failed to capitalise, and also dropped points. The Dogs’ lead has been cut to 0.9 Scoring Shots on MoSSBODS, however, and 4.0 points on MoSHBODS.
Further down the order there was again quite a bit of movement this week, with 14 teams changing places on MoSSBODS and nine doing the same on MoSHBODS. The big movers on MoSSBODS were Richmond and Carlton (both up 3), and Port Adelaide (up 2), as well as Fremantle (down 4) and Collingwood and Adelaide (down 3 each), On MoSHBODS they were Carlton (up 4), Richmond (up 3), Collingwood (down 3), and Fremantle and St Kilda (both down 2).
All those moves have done a lot to align the Systems’ rankings. Currently, they now have the same Top 11 and the same Bottom 4.
Read More2021 - Round 18 Results - Yikes
/Another largely unpleasant set of results for most MoS models, but, to be honest, right now it’s hard to sustain feeling hard done by as these latest COVID variants audition on the world’s Virus Got Talent stages.
Read More2021 - Round 18 - Update #2
/Armed now with the last piece of this weekend’s fixturing puzzle, here is the complete set of MoS model forecasts.
Read More2021 - Round 18 - Update #1
/We now know the venues for all nine games, and have bookmaker markets for all but the last game of the round, so we can revise all of the forecasts for the relocated Richmond v Brisbane Lions game, and some of the forecasts for the relocated GWS v Sydney game.
Read More2021 - Round 18 : MoSHPlay Update
/The announced teams are enough to have MoSHPlay, unlike MoSHBODS, going with the favourites: Cats by 4
Read More2021 - Round 18 : Overs/Unders
/Days like today, with Sydney’s lockdown extended for another fortnight and a troubling number of cases emerging in Melbourne, it does feel a bit irrelevant to be continuing to blog here about the football, but, for me, it provides some sense of normalcy. I hope maybe it does the same for some of you too, and that you and your families are doing okay right now. Thanks for sticking around.
Read More2021 - Round 18 : Come From Away
/As I write this, there are eight away team favourites across the nine games of the upcoming round, with bookmaker-expected victory margins for those eight teams ranging from 0.5 to 25.5 points, and that for the lone home team favourite coming in at 39.5 points. That yields an all-game average expected margin of 12.7 points per game.
Read More2021 - Team Ratings After Round 17
/Despite dropping Rating points again this week, the Dogs remain the top-rated team on both Systems, although their lead now is only 1.6 Scoring Shots on MoSSBODS, and 4.9 points on MoSHBODS.
Further down the order there was quite a bit of movement, with a dozen teams changing places on MoSSBODS and on MoSHBODS. The big movers on MoSSBODS were St Kilda (up 3), Sydney and Essendon (up 2), and Port Adelaide and Richmond (down 3), while on MoSHBODS they were St Kilda (up 4), Essendon, Collingwood, and West Coast (up 2), Carlton, GWS, and Adelaide (down 2), and Richmond (down 4).
Currently, both Systems have the same Top 5 and Bottom 1.
Read More2021 - Round 17 Results - Not Good Enough
/Well, that was carnage.
Read More2021 - Round 17 - Update
/Now that we know the venue for the Lions v Saints game, and the associated markets are up, we have all that we need to finalise the forecasts and the wagers.
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