2021 - Round 17 : MoSHPlay Update

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UPDATE 7PM MOnDAY

Eagles by 26 according to MoSHPlay.

UPDATE 3:30PM SunDAY

MoSHPlay has switched to the Pies.

UPDATE 2:45PM SunDAY

Dogs by 24 now, according to MoSHPlay

UPDATE Noon SUNDAY

MoSHPlay now has the Giants - sorry, GIANTS - by only 13 points

UPDATE 4PM SATURDAY

Just the tiniest of adjustments for the Blues v Cats game. Now Cats by 20.

UPDATE 1:30PM SATURDAY

Fremantle by 9 points now, according to MoSHPlay

UPDATE 7:15PM THURSDAY

MoSHPlay is the most extreme margin forecaster in just two games, and the most extreme probability estimator in four games.

UPDATE 11:45PM WEDNESDAY

Port Adelaide by 3, according to MoSHPlay

2021 - Round 17 : Eureka (Again)

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After another week of staggered announcements about fixturing, here we are on Wednesday morning with only the Lions v Saints game yet to find a home.

The round looks like an interesting one, with all but two of the games forecast to be decided by less than 4 goals, and with six games that the simulations have flagged as particularly important in determining the composition of the ultimate finalists.

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2021 - Team Ratings After Round 16

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Some mid- and lower-table movement on MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS this week, most notably the Swans’ climb of 4 spots into 7th on MoSSBODS and 6th on MoSHBODS, and the Eagles’ dive of 3 spots into 17th on both Systems. On MoSHBODS, GWS’ 3 spot climb into 10th was also notable.

At the end of it all, both Systems still have the same Top 5, despite the Dogs Rating decline on both Systems after an insufficiently dominant performance against the Roos.

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2021 - Round 16 Results - Good Enough

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Overall, the Head-to-Head Tipsters did only a little better this week than they did last week, the all-Tipster average coming in at 4.9 from 9, just one-tenth of a tip higher. There was, however, a greater range of scores, with four Tipsters bagging only 4 from 9, and three Tipsters bagging 6 from 9.

Amongst the Tipsters registering the maximum were MoSSBODS_Marg and MoSHBODS_Marg who, as a result, now have 1st and 2nd places respectively, outroght. MoSHPlay_Marg managed only a 5 from 9 and so fell one tip behind MoSHBODS_Margin.

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2021 - Round 16 - Update #2

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It’s Friday afternoon, I’m in lockdown, we’re one game into the round, and I can now finalise all the outputs. What a week.

Firstly, here are the updated forecasts. Nothing startling in the Crows v Lions game.

And, here are the details for MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS. Adelaide, at home, enjoy a net +2.7 SS VPV on MoSSBODS, and +11.8 points on MoSHBODS.

Here’s the update to wagering, which shows a small wager on Adelaide at $4.20.

Lastly, here are the score forecasts and totals details. We’ve passed on wagering in the Adelaide game, since our own score forecasts are virtually identical to the Total on offer.

2021 - Round 16 - Update #1

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Just a short update for any of you playing at home, now that we know the venue for the Fremantle v Carlton game.

Firstly, here are the updated forecasts

And, here are the details for MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS

Here’s the update to wagering (which shows no bets on the Fremantle v Carlton game)

Lastly, here are the score forecasts and totals details. We’ve passed on taking the overs in the Dockers v Blues game because of the weather forecast.

2021 - Round 16 : MoSHPlay Update

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UPDATE SUNDAY 4PM

Dogs by 57 points in the final game of the round.

UPDATE SUNDAY 2:30PM

Pies by 4 points now, according to MoSHPlay.

R16 - MoSHPlay Update SUN 230PM.png

UPDATE SUNDAY 12:30PM

Sydney by 9 points, according to MoSHPlay.

UPDATE SATURDAY 4PM

With the late change of Mathieson for Neale, MoSHPlay now has the Lions by only 25.

UPDATE THURSDAY 7PM

Here’s MoSHPlay’s current thoughts about the games where we have both initial squads and a venue.

UPDATE WEDNESDAY 11PM

In this most discombobulated of rounds, MoSHPlay currently has the Tigers by 26 in the Thursday night game

2021 - Round 16 : Partial Credit

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It’s weeks like this that I’m grateful my career choices didn’t wind up with me involved in fixturing for the AFL.

As I write this, there are still two games whose venue is yet to be finalised and that, as a result, there are no bookmaker markets for. For the purposes of the MoS twins. I’ve assumed that the prevailing scuttlebutt is correct, and therefore that the Crows v Lions game will end up being played at Eureka (aka MARS) Stadium, and the Dockers v Blues game at Kardinia.

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2021 - Team Ratings After Round 15

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There was a lot more movement on MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS this week, with 13 teams being re-ranked on each. On MoSSBODS, the biggest movers were Fremantle, Sydney and St Kilda, all up two spots, and GWS and West Coast, both down two spots. On MoSHBODS it was Sydney, up three spots, Fremantle and St Kilda, up two spots each, and Collingwood, GWS, and West Coast, all down two spots.

That left both Systems with identical Top 6s and Bottom 7s.

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2021 - Round 15 Results - All's Well ...

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A relatively more difficult round to pick, in which only five of the nine favourites were successful, saw the all-Tipster head-to-head average come in at just 4.8, but with all but Home Sweet Home and Consult The Ladder scoring five from nine. The three MoS forecasters still sit atop the Leaderboard with MoSSBODS_Marg remaining in 1st and now on 87.5 from 126 (69%), ahead of MoSHBODS_Marg and MoSHPlay_Marg on 86.5 (69%), one clear of RSMP_Weighted on 85.5 (68%).

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2021 - Round 15 : MoSHPlay Update

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UPDATE SUNDAY 2:30PM

MoSHPlay is sticking with its Dogs forecast for the win, but now by only 7 points.

UPDATE SUNDAY 12:30PM

MoSHPlay finishes at Giants by 8 points.

UPDATE SATURDAY 1PM

MoSHPlay has revised its estimate for the Pies v Dockers game and now has the Pies winning by 11 points.

UPDATE THURSDAY 7:15PM

Having now had a look at the likely teams for the remainder of the round, MoSHPlay is siding with the twins in every game, though is less confident about the Suns and Dogs upsets.

UPDATE THURSDAY 6:45PM

With the final teams in, Lions by only 2 now, according to MoSHPlay

UPDATE WEDNESDAY 7:30PM

Lions by 3, according to MoSHPlay

2021 - Round 14 Results - Bye Bye Bye

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A much better round for the Head-to-Head Tipsters this week, with five of them tipping the card, and all but Home Sweet Home managing at least four from five. The three MoS forecasters still sit atop the Leaderboard with MoSSBODS_Marg still in 1st and now on 82.5 from 117 (71%), ahead of MoSHBODS_Marg and MoSHPlay_Marg on 81.5 (70%), one clear of RSMP_Weighted and on 80.5 (69%).

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