High scores again for the Head-to-Head Tipsters this week, with all but Home Sweet Home bagging seven from nine. That left the Leaderboard ordering unchanged, with MoSSBODS_Marg still in 1st and now on 72 from 99 (73%), ahead of the two other MoS Tipsters who are both on 71 from 99 (72%).
Read MoreMoSHPlay is the most extreme Margin Predictor only in the Suns v Hawks, and Eagles v Dons games
Read MoreWith the Suns v Hawks fixture now moved to the SCG, and the Tigers v Crows game now at Sydney Showground, we need to review the forecasts for those matches.
According to the MoS model, that first change is worth about 1 point to the Suns, and the second worth about 7 to 9 points for the Crows.
Read MoreThis week, in aggregate, looks a lot like last week, with MoS twins again expecting about 161 points per game, and the bookmakers a point or two higher. The 2021 season average now stands at 164.8 points per game, 87.1 for home teams, and 78.6 for away teams.
Read MoreOnly one game this week is expected to be decided by less than two goals, while seven have bookmaker handicaps of from three to five goals, which has landed the all-game average at 24.4 points per game, up by over 4 points per game on last week.
Read MoreThe Dogs opened up a gap over Melbourne at the top of both Systems this week, which finished with the two Raters having an identical Top 8 after the Lions and Cats traded 3rd and 4th, and the Giants and Blues traded 7th and 8th.
The big climbers on MoSSBODS were Fremantle (up 3), and Essendon and Gold Coast (up 2), while the biggest fall was registered by St Kilda (down 6). On MoSHBODS, the only teams moving multiple spots were Essendon (up 2), Sydney (down 2), and St Kilda (down 3).
Read MoreRound 10 continued the upward trend for the Head-to-Head Tipsters, with the average score coming in at 7.3 from 9 this week. Best were the MoS trio’s, Bookie Knows Best’s, ENS_Linear’s and Home Sweet Home’s 8 from 9, while all the remaining Tipsters scored 6 from 9. MoSSBODS_Marg’s 8 from 9 was enough for it to retain sole leadership, now on 65 from 90 (72%), ahead of the two other MoS Tipsters who are both on 64 from 90 (71%).
Read MoreNothing too arresting from MoSHPlay so far, although it is a bit more bullish on the Cats, and a little nervy about the Dockers
Read MoreAll four forecasters lowered their average expected totals by about 2 points per game this week, which sees the MoS twins expecting about 161 points per game, and the bookmakers about 163 points per game. The 2021 season average currently stands at 164.5 points per game, 85.7 for home teams, and 79.8 for away teams.
Read MoreAgain this week, only two games are expected to be decided by less than 2 goals, but the difference is that the remainder are expected to be won by between about 3 and 7 goals. As a result, the average expected margin of 20.2 points per game (according to the TAB bookmaker) is almost 3 points per game higher than last week.
Read MoreThe Dogs hung on to top spot on both Systems this week, while Melbourne leap-frogged the Cats on MoSSBODS to leave both Systems now with an identical Top 8.
The big climbers on MoSSBODS were St Kilda (up 3), while the big sliders were West Coast and Essendon (both down 2). On MoSHBODS, Sydney were the only team to move multiple places, they climbing two spots into 9th.
Read MoreRound 9 was even better than Round 8 for the Head-to-Head Tipster, with the average score coming in at 7.1 from 9. Best were the MoS trio’s 8 from 9, and worst was Home Sweet Home’s 5 from 9. MoSSBODS_Marg’s 8 from 9 was enough to propel it back into sole leadership, now on 57 from 81 (70%), ahead of the two other MoS Tipsters and RSMP_Weighted who are all on 56 from 81 (69%).
Read MoreThere’s nothing especially startling about MoSHPlay’s current views on the Sunday games.
MoSHPlay now has the Dogs by 0.05 points …
With final teams announced, it’s the Cats by 22 now, according to MoSHPlay
It’s the Cats by 23 in the Friday game, according to MoSHPlay
The MoS twins are, once again, just a little more bearish about the likely totals in the upcoming round, but only by about 2 points per game. And, in fact, they actually expect higher scores than do the bookmakers in 3 or 4 of the games.
Read MoreThis week looks a bit like last week, at least in terms of the bookmaker margins. The average expected margin of 17.3 points per game (according to the TAB bookmaker) is about 1 point per game lower, and there are again only two games expected to be decided by less than 2 goals, and five expected to be decided by more than 3 goals.
Read MoreOn MoSSBODS this week, Geelong climbed into 2nd over Melbourne and Richmond, as all but five of the two were re-ranked. Sydney and Fremantle, along with Geelong, were the only teams to climb multiple spots, while Gold Coast was the only team to fall multiple spots.
Over on MoSHBODS, Geelong also climbed two spots, but only into 3rd, while St Kilda climbed three spots, and Gold Coast and Collingwood fell two spots.
So, MoSSBODS now has a Top 3 of Dogs, Cats, and Dees, while MoSHBODS has Dogs, Dees, and Cats.
Read MoreIn a round in which seven favourites registered the win, it’s unsurprising that the Head-to-Head Tipster average came in at 6.9 from 9 this week. Best were RSMP_Weighted’s and Consult The Ladder’s 8 from 9, and worst was Home Sweet Home’s 5 from 9. RSMP_Weighted’s performance was good enough to move it into joint leadership with MoSSBODS_Marg. on 49 from 72 (68%).
Read MoreMoSHPlay is tipping a narrow upset in the Friday night game: Cats by 1 point
Read MoreAs I type this on Tuesday evening, there is no TAB Totals market for the Lions v Dockers game. Sportsbet have the Total at 160.5 but, as is tradition here, we won’t lock in the numbers for that game for the bookmakers until both have posted Totals.
Read MoreAfter a 24-hour pause while we found out where the Dockers v Lions game would be played, we finish with an average expected margin of 18.4 points per game according to the TAB bookmaker, which is up by over 4 points on last weeks’ figure.
Only two games are expected to be decided by less than 2 goals, and five are expected to be decided by more than 3 goals.
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