All four forecasters lowered their average expected totals by about 2 points per game this week, which sees the MoS twins expecting about 161 points per game, and the bookmakers about 163 points per game. The 2021 season average currently stands at 164.5 points per game, 85.7 for home teams, and 79.8 for away teams.
Read MoreAgain this week, only two games are expected to be decided by less than 2 goals, but the difference is that the remainder are expected to be won by between about 3 and 7 goals. As a result, the average expected margin of 20.2 points per game (according to the TAB bookmaker) is almost 3 points per game higher than last week.
Read MoreThe Dogs hung on to top spot on both Systems this week, while Melbourne leap-frogged the Cats on MoSSBODS to leave both Systems now with an identical Top 8.
The big climbers on MoSSBODS were St Kilda (up 3), while the big sliders were West Coast and Essendon (both down 2). On MoSHBODS, Sydney were the only team to move multiple places, they climbing two spots into 9th.
Read MoreRound 9 was even better than Round 8 for the Head-to-Head Tipster, with the average score coming in at 7.1 from 9. Best were the MoS trio’s 8 from 9, and worst was Home Sweet Home’s 5 from 9. MoSSBODS_Marg’s 8 from 9 was enough to propel it back into sole leadership, now on 57 from 81 (70%), ahead of the two other MoS Tipsters and RSMP_Weighted who are all on 56 from 81 (69%).
Read MoreThere’s nothing especially startling about MoSHPlay’s current views on the Sunday games.
MoSHPlay now has the Dogs by 0.05 points …
With final teams announced, it’s the Cats by 22 now, according to MoSHPlay
It’s the Cats by 23 in the Friday game, according to MoSHPlay
The MoS twins are, once again, just a little more bearish about the likely totals in the upcoming round, but only by about 2 points per game. And, in fact, they actually expect higher scores than do the bookmakers in 3 or 4 of the games.
Read MoreThis week looks a bit like last week, at least in terms of the bookmaker margins. The average expected margin of 17.3 points per game (according to the TAB bookmaker) is about 1 point per game lower, and there are again only two games expected to be decided by less than 2 goals, and five expected to be decided by more than 3 goals.
Read MoreOn MoSSBODS this week, Geelong climbed into 2nd over Melbourne and Richmond, as all but five of the two were re-ranked. Sydney and Fremantle, along with Geelong, were the only teams to climb multiple spots, while Gold Coast was the only team to fall multiple spots.
Over on MoSHBODS, Geelong also climbed two spots, but only into 3rd, while St Kilda climbed three spots, and Gold Coast and Collingwood fell two spots.
So, MoSSBODS now has a Top 3 of Dogs, Cats, and Dees, while MoSHBODS has Dogs, Dees, and Cats.
Read MoreIn a round in which seven favourites registered the win, it’s unsurprising that the Head-to-Head Tipster average came in at 6.9 from 9 this week. Best were RSMP_Weighted’s and Consult The Ladder’s 8 from 9, and worst was Home Sweet Home’s 5 from 9. RSMP_Weighted’s performance was good enough to move it into joint leadership with MoSSBODS_Marg. on 49 from 72 (68%).
Read MoreMoSHPlay is tipping a narrow upset in the Friday night game: Cats by 1 point
Read MoreAs I type this on Tuesday evening, there is no TAB Totals market for the Lions v Dockers game. Sportsbet have the Total at 160.5 but, as is tradition here, we won’t lock in the numbers for that game for the bookmakers until both have posted Totals.
Read MoreAfter a 24-hour pause while we found out where the Dockers v Lions game would be played, we finish with an average expected margin of 18.4 points per game according to the TAB bookmaker, which is up by over 4 points on last weeks’ figure.
Only two games are expected to be decided by less than 2 goals, and five are expected to be decided by more than 3 goals.
Read MoreDespite two of them shedding Ratings, the Top 7 teams retained their rankings on MoSSBODS this week, but there was a lot of action below them, with West Coast climbing 5 spots, GWS and St Kilda climbing 3 spots each, Fremantle plummeting 7 spots, and Sydney falling 3 spots.
Over on MoSHBODS, only the Cats and Lions swapped places amongst the Top 7, while West Coast climbed 4 spots, GWS climbed 3, and Fremantle fell 5 spots.
Overall, for the third week running, the Top 3 were left unchanged on both Systems as Western Bulldogs, Melbourne, and then Richmond, and the two Systems left North Melbourne in 18th.
Read MoreWe surmised that head-to-head tipping was going to be more difficult this week and, indeed, it was, with the Head-to-Head Tipster average coming in at just 4.4 from 9 this week, down by almost two full tips. Five Tipsters managed 5 from 9, including MoSHPlay_Marg, which took it into joint leadership with MoSSBODS_Marg on 42 from 63 (67%).
Read MoreDogs by 12 in the Friday night game, according to MoSHPlay
Read MoreOver the course of the season so far, the MoS twins have tended to over-estimate Total scores by about 5 points per game, and the bookmakers under-estimate them by about 3 points per game. This week, they’ve all but come together in deciding that the nine games will average somewhere around 162 to 163 points per game.
Read MoreThis week’s average expected margin is only just over 14 points per game according to the TAB bookmaker, and would be considerably lower but for the 55.5 points start that North Melbourne are being offered. All of the remaining games have expected margins of under 3 goals, and seven of them of under 2 goals.
If you tip all nine winners this week, you’ll have achieved something remarkable.
Read MoreA dozen teams were again re-ranked on MoSSBODS this week, and a dozen also on MoSHBODS but, for the second week running, the Top 3 were left unchanged on both Systems as Western Bulldogs, Melbourne, and then Richmond. The two Systems also North Melbourne in 18th.
Read MoreThe Head-to-Head Tipsters averaged 6.2 from 9 correct tips this week, up fractionally on last week’s average of 6.1 correct tips. MoSSBODS_Marg and MoSHPlay_Marg fared best, bagging 7 from 9, with all other Tipsters bagging 6 from 9. MoSSBODS_Marg now stands alone atop the Leaderboard on 38 from 54 (70%).
Read MoreMoSHPlay is a firm Dogs advocate this week
Read MoreMAFL is a website for ...
(For those not wanting to use PayPal, my email address below is now also a PayID)
Click on the envelope
Copyright © 2006-2025, Tony Corke. All rights reserved.
