This week’s average gap between the MoS twins’ forecasts and the bookmakers’ has come in at under a goal, with that difference heavily influenced by the strongly diverging views about the likely score in the Pies v Dons game, and offset a little by two games in which the MoS twins are expecting higher scores than are the bookmakers. (Yes, that’s right: higher …)
Read MoreThis week’s average expected margin is just under 15 points per game according to the TAB bookmaker, which is about two-thirds what it was last week. The only game that threatens to be a blowout is the Dockers v Roos game, where the expected margin is about seven goals. Six other games are expected to be won by less than about two goals.
Read MoreA dozen teams were re-ranked on MoSSBODS this week, and 10 on MoSHBODS but, once again the Top 3 were left unchanged on both Systems as Western Bulldogs, Melbourne, and then Richmond. The two Systems also both left Hawthorn in 17th and North Melbourne in 18th.
Read MoreThe Head-to-Head Tipsters did a little better as a group this week, averaging 6.1 from 9 correct tips, with the RSMP twins and Bookie Knows Best recording the round’s highest score of 7 and drawing level with MoSHPlay_Marg. The remaining two MoS models remain tied at the top of the Leaderboard and now on 31 from 45 (69%).
Read MoreNothing too startling from MoSHPlay for the Sunday games.
MoSHPlay now likes the Dogs by 42. No change in the Swans v Giants game.
MoSHPlay pretty much doing what MoSHPlay does in the Saturday games - mostly mainstream in two, and bordering on outrageous in the third
Eagles by 15 in the Friday night game, according to MoSHPlay
With the final teams announced, MoSHPlay is now tipping the Tigers by 7 points
Tigers by only 5 tomorrow night, according to MoSHPlay
This week’s average gap between the MoS twins’ forecasts and the bookmakers’ has come in at just over a goal, though with much larger differences in the Eagles v Pies, Dogs v Suns, and Lions v Dons games.
Read MoreThere’s a greater likelihood of larger victory margins this week, with the average expected margin coming in at just over 22 points per game, according to the TAB bookmaker, and with only two games expected to be won by less than 2 goals, and one, the Cats v Roos game, expected to be won by 9 goals.
Read MoreMoSSBODS, despite re-ranking 14 teams this week, left the Top 3 unchanged as Western Bulldogs, Melbourne, and then Richmond, and left North Melbourne in bottom spot. MoSHBODS re-ranked 13 teams, but left Western Bulldogs in first, Melbourne in second, and North Melbourne in last place.
Read MoreCollectively, the Head-to-Head Tipsters averaged 5.7 from 9 this week, bolstered by 6 from 9 returns for all three MoS Tipsters, which left them filling the top three spots on the Leaderboard.
Read MoreSwans by 28, according to MoSHPlay
Read MoreThe MoS twins continue to be the boys who cried ‘unders’, although the gap between their average forecast total and that of the bookmakers is, at least, reducing.
This week they expect the average score to be about 165 points, while the Bookmakers have it about a goal higher
Read MoreWith such a short turnaround this week, I found myself locking in tips and wagers late last night (Monday) before the major adjustments had been made, so you might see some bigger discrepancies between the lines and prices quoted here, and what the markets look like as you read this.
At the time I locked in, the average expected margin of victory for Round 4, according to the TAB bookmaker, was 13.9 points per game, and six games were expected to be decided by less than 3 goals.
Read MoreIt’s the Western Bulldogs who now hold top spot on both MoS Team Rating Systems, ahead of Melbourne. Richmond has 3rd spot on MoSSBODS, but Port Adelaide has it on MoSHBODS.
Read MoreNone of the Head-to-Head Tipsters bagged more than 5 from 9 this week, but three of the four that managed that return were from the MoS stable, which sees them all sitting atop the Leaderboard.
Read MorePies by 11 in the Thursday game, according to MoSHPlay
Read MoreA business trip to Melbourne had me literally in the air when, I suspect, the markets at the TAB and Sportsbet first posted. I only got to them around 3:30pm, by which time the Totals offered had miraculously aligned, leaving Investors with $1.90 and $1.88 prices for the same risk in each market. Zero diversification benefits, the. But, more of that later.
Read MorePerhaps a slightly easier round to tip this week, with the all-game average expected margin at 15.7 points per game, and with all but one of the games expected to be won by about 4 goals or less, the exception being the North Melbourne v Western Bulldogs game, which the away team is expected to win by about 7 goals.
Read MoreAt the end of Round 2, the MoS twins now agree about the Top 4 and the Bottom 3 teams (and five other of the teams in-between).
Read MoreWith all but Control The Ladder and Home Sweet Home bagging 8 from 9 correct tips amongst the Head-to-Head Tipsters this week, it’s almost enough to convince me that “accuracy” might be a reasonable measure of a forecaster’s ability (hint: it absolutely isn’t).
Read MoreMoSHPlay is very conservative in Game 1 of Round 2
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