Even higher levels of agreement this week between the MoS twins and the bookmakers sees only two games where the differences in opinion about likely game totals exceed one goal.

Another set of nine games this week where the bookmakers expect the final winning margin to be three goals or smaller. In seven of those games they expect to be within two goals, which has resulted in an average expected margin of just 9.4 points per game.

After MoSSBODS switched 1st and 2nd this week, both MoS Systems now agree that the Top 3 teams are, in order, Collingwood, Port Adelaide, and Brisbane Lions.

Home Sweet Home, fresh off its first 9 from 9 in who-knows-how-long, recorded just 1 from 9 this week, plummeting it from 1st to 2nd-last on the all-Tipster ladder. Best were the 7 from 9’s of the MoS trio who, as a result, moved themselves into the top 3 spots on the Leaderboard, a couple of tips clear of their nearest rivals.

MoSHPlay has it as the Pies by 8 for tomorrow night’s game.

As was the case last weekend, there’s agreement in the broad but disagreement in the detail when you look at the MoS twins’ and the bookmakers’ score forecasts this week, with all four expecting an average score per game of around 123 points, but differences in specific games again as large as two goals.

In what seems likely to be another challenging round in which to tip winners, the TAB Bookmaker has posted single-digit lines for five of the games, and sub 3 goal lines for the other four. The average expected margin is therefore only 8.1 points per game.

Port Adelaide still clings to top spot on MoSSBODS, but now lies 2nd to Collingwood on MoSHBODS after a round in which neither of the Systems felt Port did enough against the Giants to maintain their previous Rating.

Collingwood did, however, rise by one spot on MoSSBODS, and is now in 2nd there, ahead of the Lions.

It’s been a long time since Home Sweet Home sat atop the Head-to-Head Tipster Leaderboard, but that it does this week after bagging a perfect 9 from 9 in the week where no team was actually playing at home for the first time in almost 60 years.

MoSHPlay has the Lions by 2 points for tomorrow night’s game.

There’s agreement in the broad but disagreement in the detail when you look at the MoS twins’ and the bookmakers’ score forecasts this week, with all four expecting an average score per game in the 123 to 125 points range, but differences in specific games as large as two goals.

Seven of this week’s nine games are expected by the bookmakers to be won by less than two goals, and the only thing dragging the all-game average up to 9.9 points per game is the relatively comfortable, five goalish victory that the Eagles are expected to record.

Port Adelaide still tops both MoS Systems, though now trailed by Brisbane Lions and Collingwood on MoSSBODS and the same two teams, but in the opposite order, on MoSHBODS.

The Bottom 2 on both Systems remain Gold Coast and Adelaide.

This week, tipping winners was a little easier than last week, but tipping margins was considerably harder.

MoSHPlay pretty much going with the crowd at this point for tomorrow night’s Blues v Saints clash. Saints by 4.

The bookmakers appear to have come around to the MoS way of thinking, at least as far as totals are concerned, and have produced per game averages remarkably similar to our own.

It’s not often I wake up on a Monday and discover that the preparation I’d done the night before has been wasted because the games my models had forecasted are no longer the games being played.

But that, in a proverbial nutshell, is 2020.

Port Adelaide now tops, and Adelaide tails, both MoS Team Rating Systems.

In fact, the two Systems now have the same Top 3 and Bottom 4 teams, and disagree about the rest by no more than two places - and the difference is even that large only for Carlton, who are 7th on MoSSBODS and 9th on MoSHBODS.

Notwithstanding the 25% reduction in game length, which should logically lessen the likelihood of huge forecasting errors, sub-16 mean absolute errors (MAEs) are something to behold.

MoSHPlay has it as Sydney by 4 for the Thursday night game