2016 - Round 12 Results - A ChiPS Triumph
/There are, I'd contend, good losses and bad ones, and their ordering is not entirely determined by their magnitude.
Read More2016 Round 12 : Overs/Unders Update
/MoSSBODS still tends to predict smaller aggregates than does the TAB bookmaker, but this week the difference is under 2 goals in six of the games with the result that the Overs/Unders Fund is only active in three.
Read More2016 Round 12 : More Likely to be Close than Right
/The head-to-head prices and handicaps this week, a couple of games aside, hint at a round full of close finishes, with seven of the favourites priced in the $1.42 to $1.85 range and handicaps in those same seven games in the 2.5 to 9.5 points range.
Read More2016 - Team Ratings After Round 11
/The Swans' 38-point victory over the Suns and the Eagles' 8-point loss to the Dogs together were enough to convince MARS to move the Swans into top spot on its Ratings. ChiPS already had the Swans ranked 1st before the round commenced, and continues to hold that opinion now, though the gap between the Swans and the Eagles remains a tiny 0.4 Rating Points (RP).
Read More2016 - Round 11 Results - Good Areas
/Another small profit for the Overall Portfolio this week, with the Over/Under Fund making a significant contribution by landing four from five and moving into the black for the first time since Round 4.
Read More2016 Round 11 : Overs/Unders Update I
/Well there's no point waiting any longer, it seems, there just isn't going to be an Overs/Unders market posted for the Swans v Suns game anytime soon.
Read More2016 Round 11 : A More Balanced Portfolio
/If last week's portfolio of wagers was a high-risk hedge fund, this week's is a far more diversified bundle of assets, with a high-risk / high-reward tilt at the Suns offset by a trio of more pedestrian, term deposit-like investments. (Can you guess which sector of the economy I've spent a lot of my life working in?)
Read More2016 - Team Ratings After Round 10
/This week's results provide some interesting examples of the contrasting philosophies of the MoS Team Rating Systems and how they manifest in the interpretation of results.
Read More2016 - Round 10 Results - That's My Line
/This week saw a return to profitability - the first in four weeks - thanks solely to a season-high +7.6c return for the Line Fund from its 2 from 2 performance. The Head-to-Head Fund missed with its only two attempts, meaning that it has now shed almost 25% of its initial value over the last six rounds. Nonetheless, thanks to its remarkable start to the season, it remains up by 10.5c overall.
The Overs/Unders Fund managed just 3 from 6 for the weekend, shedding 0.6c to leave it down 1.4c on the season.
Read More2016 Round 10 : Overs/Unders Update
/Investors were already hoping that rain might boost the Lions' and Dons' chances in upsetting or at least staying close to their respective opponents, and today's news of six Unders wagers for the weekend will only reinforce that pluvial desire.
Read More2016 Round 10 : Swinging for the Fences and Hoping for Rain
/So astutely has the TAB Bookmaker priced the head-to-head and line markets this week that seven games have been assessed by MoS Funds as bereft of value for their respective home teams. In the two remaining games, the Head-to-Head and Line Funds have spotted a glimmer of hope - in an expected value sense - for the home team underdogs.
Read More2016 - Team Ratings After Round 9
/ChiPS and MARS continued to fuss with Team Rankings again this week, though they mostly moved teams by only a spot or two. The lone exception was the Western Bulldogs, who MARS slipped three places into 8th on the back of a 25-point loss to the Giants.
Read More2016 - Round 9 Results - The Wrong Kind of Upsets
/Only three teams lost this weekend who were favourites with the TAB at the start of the week. Two of those losses were by teams Investors had no interest in, there being no head-to-head or line action in their games, and the third, Fremantle's, was an unwelcome one, since the Head-to-Head Fund had opted for the home team favourite and the Line Fund had taken the Dockers giving 2.5 points start.
Read More2016 Round 9 : Minor ChiPS Changes
/In providing ChiPS with the results of last weekend's games, I neglected to include the score in the final game of the round.
As, a consequence, ChiPS' predictions for the two games involving the Eagles and the Saints have been changed as follows:
- West Coast is now tipped to win by 15 points, not 7, and Port Adelaide's victory probability is now assessed as 34%
- St Kilda is now tipped to win by 26 points, not 34, and their victory probability is now assessed as 76%
ChiPS also now rates West Coast 2nd above GWS and Sydney. St Kilda fall from 12th to 14th.
There are no other changes.
2016 Round 9 : Overs/Unders Update
/It's a bundle of five Overs/Unders wagers this week, four on the Under and one on the Over, which makes the full weekend's festivities look like the following.
Read More2016 Round 9 : Needing the Suns to Shine
/Again this week Investors have four head-to-head and four line wagers, two on favourites and two on underdogs.
Read More2016 - Team Ratings After Round 8
/This week, only two teams moved by more than a single spot on both MARS and ChiPS Team Ratings, Melbourne falling two places on both Systems, and Collingwood rising two places on MARS and three places on ChiPS.
Read More2016 - Round 8 Results - Mixed Feelings
/Not a lot to get enthused about or overly worried about in the Round 8 results, but ultimately, for me, a slight feeling of disappointment with how it all went.
Read More2016 Round 8 : Overs/Unders Update
/Investors have four bets from the Overs/Unders Fund this week, all of them Unders bets, as MoSSBODS finds itself generally estimating lower team and aggregate scores than does the TAB bookmaker.
Read More2016 Round 8 : Roos Snooze and Lose?
/It's another measured week of wagering in Round 8, four head-to-head wagers paired with four line wagers on the same teams (the overs/unders markets still yet to be posted).
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