2016 - Round 8 Results - Mixed Feelings

Not a lot to get enthused about or overly worried about in the Round 8 results, but ultimately, for me, a slight feeling of disappointment with how it all went.

Investors suffered the smallest of losses on the weekend's wagering and, while MoSSBODS tipped adequately, ChiPS' predictions proved markedly less accurate. Over on FMITL I managed to scramble another win, which was pleasing, but I'm expecting relatively poor hauls on all three of the Monash Competitions, which will in all likelihood see me drop down the ladders there. It's lightness and dark wherever you look.

Anyway, focussing firstly on the wagering outcomes we find that the Head-to-Head Fund dropped 0.8c on a 2 from 4 performance, the Line Fund gained 0.5c on a 3 from 4 performance, and the Overs/Unders Fund dropped 0.4c on a 2 from 4 performance, which, in aggregate, meant an 0.2c loss for the Overall Portfolio. It remains up by 23.3% on the season though and it's hard not to remain cheerful about that ...

TIPS AND PREDICTIONS

Seven victorious favourites and relatively low levels of disagreement amongst the Head-to-Head Tipsters resulted in a 6.3 average score for the weekend, dragged down mostly by the 5s of C_Marg and Home Sweet Home.

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MoSSBODS_Marg bagged 6, which was one fewer than BKB, reducing MoSSBODS' lead at the head of the table to just two tips. It's now on 55 from 72 (76%).

ENS_Greedy_MoSS recorded the round's best mean absolute error (MAE), though its 30.80 points per game was only a shade better than RSMP_Simple's 31.09, ENS_Linear_MoSS' 31.12, and RSMP_Weighted's 31.16 points per game. C_Marg produced the worst MAE of 37.2 points per game and the all-Predictor average MAE was 33.4 points per game per Predictor.

Those performances left ENS_Greedy_MoSS in 1st, MoSSBODS_Marg in 2nd, less than 2 goals behind, and ENS_Linear_MOSS in 3rd, just another 5 points further back.

The seven leading Predictors, along with Bookie_3, all now have season records on line betting sufficient to have produced a profit wagering at $1.90 prices (ie have tipped at a rate better than 1/1.9).

The round's best probability score belonged to Bookie_LPSO, and the 2nd- and 3rd-best to Bookie-RE and Bookie-OE. MoSSBODS_Prob had only the 4th-best score, but remains comfortably atop the MoS Leaderboard.

Hopefully this week hasn't been the first sign of a bookmaker resurgence.