2019 - Round 9 Results - MAE All Your Weeks Be Like This One

I thought last week’s 18.5 all-Predictor average mean absolute error (MAE) would take some time to beat, but it took only seven days. This week’s average was 16.5 points per game per Predictor.

Head-to-head tipping was quite successful as well, with only one Tipster, C_Marg, registering a score below 7 from 9, and over half registering a score of 8. MoSHPlay_Marg was one of the Tipsters snaring that score of 8, which was enough to give it a 2 tip lead over RSMP_Simple who managed only 7 from 9.

For the second week in a row, the best MAE belonged to RSMP_Weighted (13.7), which this week was good enough to move it into 3rd place behind RSMP_Weighted, who recorded the round’s second-best MAE of 14.1 points per game.

Worst this week was MoSHBODS_Marg’s 18.3 points per game, which saw it drop from 2nd to 4th.

All of the Head-to-Head Probability Predictors registered positve log probability scores this week, with Bookie-LPSO recording the highest score and C_Prob the lowest. MoSSBODS_Prob retained 1st place ahead of the two other MoS-based forecasters, and C_Prob held onto last position.


Another profitable week, thanks partly to Port Adelaide’s strong final quarter, which eventually saw it win by enough to cover the 28.5 points start we’d given the Suns.

In total, the Head-to-Head Fund made a small profit on 2 from 3 collects, the Line Fund made a larger profit on 2 from 2 collects, and the Overs/Unders Fund made a loss after failing with its single attempt.

Together they made a profit for Round 9 of 2.2c, which took the Combined Portfolio’s price to $1.224, this lift coming now from a 27.3% ROI on a 0.82 turn.