2019 - Round 9 : Overs/Unders

For the first time this season, the MoS twins’ totals forecasts are, in aggregate, near parity with the bookmakers’. Their average expected total is, again, 162, and the bookmakers’ is 162 to 163.

There’s agreement, too, about which will likely be the high-scoring game (Lions v Crows), which will be the likely low-scoring game (Power v Suns, although MoSSBODS thinks the Eagles v Dees game will be equally low-scoring), which will be the likely high-scoring team (Giants), and which will be the likely low-scoring team (Suns).

All four also forecast only the Giants to register a three-figure score.


It was a much better round for the bookmakers last weekend. Between them they registered the lowest mean absolute error (MAE) on all four measures. That still left MoSHBODS 1st overall on Home Team Score MAE and Total Score MAE, and MoSSBODS 1st on Game Margin MAE and Away Team Score MAE, however.

Reviewing the “Errors” section of the table we see that, overall, all four forecasters have tended to overestimate home team margins by between about 4 and 5 points per game. The MoS twins have achieved that result by overestimating home team scores by 1 or 2 points, and underestimating away team scores by about 2 to 3 points, while the bookmakers have got there by overestimating home team scores by about 6 points, and overestimating away team scores by about 1 to 2 points.

Also, the MoS twins have been close to unbiased in their totals estimates, while the bookmakers have overestimated totals by about 8 points per game.


With such high levels of agreement this week, MoSSBODS has found only two games worth a potential wager, one an under opportunity, and the other an over opportunity, but we’re passing on the latter of these because of the prospect of rain.

So, just one bet then, an unders wager in the Pies v Saints game.

Our estimated overlay in that game is about 2 goals.

After last week, MoSSBODS record against the TAB remained at 7 and 4 thanks, while that against Easybet moved to 18 and 10. That kept the overall win rate at 64% for the season.

Across all games, MoSSBODS is now at 61% against the TAB and 64% against Easybet, while MoSHBODS is at 61% against both the TAB and Easybet.