2019 - Round 25 : Overs/Unders

The MoS twins are this week forecasting slightly higher totals than the bookmakers in the Friday game (where there is some prospect of gain), and roughly the same total as the bookmakers in the Saturday game (where no rain is forecast).

There’s unanimity this week about the more-likely low- and high-scoring games, and about the most-likely high scoring team (Brisbane Lions), but disagreement about the most-likely low-scoring team. The MoS twins have West Coast as low-scorer whereas the bookmakers have the Eagles’ opponents, Geelong, as their choice for low-scorer.

No team is expected to register three figures.


The mean absolute error (MAE) honours for the first week of the finals were shared, with MoSSBODS lowest for Totals, Easybet lowest for Game Margins and for Home Team Scores, and the TAB and Easybet joint-lowest for Away Team Scores.

That left the TAB 1st overall for the season on Total Score and Game Margin MAEs, and Easybet 1st on Home Team and on Away Team Score MAEs.

MoSHBODS now trails the TAB on Total Score MAE by 64 points, and MoSHBODS trails the TAB on Game Margin MAE by 78 points.


This week MoSSBODS has identified just one possible wager, but it’s an overs bet in a game where the forecast is for possible showers, so we’re passing on it.

Last week there was one successful overs wager with the TAB. That moved MoSSBODS’ record against the TAB to 17 and 18, and left that against Easybet at 23 and 20, keeping the overall win rate at 51% for the season.

Across the entirety of the round, MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS landed on the right side of the TAB and of Easybet in 3 of the 4 games. That took MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS to 51% records for the season against the TAB, and 52% records against Easybet.