2018 - Team Ratings After Round 14

Beating Carlton by only 20 points and 10 Scoring Shots wasn't quite enough to convince either of the MoS Systems to raise Collingwood's rating this week, with the result that they now find themselves rated 3 Scoring Shots and about 11 points lower than Richmond.

On MoSSBODS, eight teams changed places this week in four single-spot swaps, Melbourne, GWS, Hawthorn and Western Bulldogs each usurping, respectively, West Coast, Port Adelaide, North Melbourne and Fremantle. 

It was exactly the same story, quantity-wise, on MoSHBODS where the climbers were GWS, Port Adelaide, Hawthorn and Western Bulldogs, and the climbed over were Sydney, Geelong, North Melbourne and St Kilda.

That left the two Systems agreeing about the ranking of 10 teams, and differing in the ranking of the other eight by no more than a single place.

Looking next at the component ratings, we see that:

  • the MoS twins still with the same Top 3 on offence of Richmond, Melbourne and then Collingwood
  • MoSSBODS still with a Top 3 on defence of Richmond, Port Adelaide and then Collingwood, and MoSHBODS now with Richmond, Port Adelaide and then Sydney, the latter two teams swapping places on this System this week having done exactly the same thing only the week before.

Across all 18 teams we find that: 

  • Brisbane Lions is ranked 11th by MoSSBODS and 13th by MoSHBODS on Offence
  • Collingwood is ranked 3rd by MoSSBODS and 6th by MoSHBODS on Defence
  • Sydney is ranked 5th by MoSSBODS and 3rd by MoSHBODS on Defence
  • Geelong is ranked 8th by MoSSBODS and 4th by MoSHBODS on Defence

No other team is ranked more than a single place differently on either component by the two Systems.

In the latest version of the animated GIF, which appears below, most teams barely move this week, with only the Western Bulldogs, whose defensive rating grew by 0.9 Scoring Shots, moving on either component by more than 0.5 Scoring Shots.

MoSSBODS Ratings At End of Rounds 1 to 14 - Smooth.gif

Richmond, by virtue of not playing, stayed still this week, allowing the other teams from history the chance to move around them. As a result, in an historical context they are in relative terms now a little further back than they were last week, sitting as they do just outside the top decile of teams that finished in the Top 2 in previous seasons. Collingwood remain the only other team sitting above the median rating of previous Top 2 finishers.

As things stand now:

  • only five teams have a positive offensive and a positive defensive rating (down one from last week)
  • none has a positive offensive and a negative defensive rating (unchanged)
  • eight have a negative offensive and a positive defensive rating (up three from last week)
  • five have a negative offensive and a negative defensive rating (down two from last week)

In total, 13 teams now have a negative offensive rating and five have a negative defensive rating.

On ChiPS this week, 11 teams moved places, including Geelong Melbourne, Port Adelaide and the Western Bulldogs each climbing two spots, St Kilda falling two spots, and West Coast and GWS both falling three.

MARS moved seven teams, but only Hawthorn (up 2) by more than a single spot.

Last week, when the number of team ranking changes was small, I thought that a natural ordering of the teams was emerging and that we might see a period of continued stability. I was wrong. Instead, we saw quite a large number of changes in rankings this week - a logical consequence, on reflection, of the underlying similarity in ability of a significant number of teams this season.

That similarity can be seen in the fact that the rating difference between Geelong in 3rd and GWS in 9th on ChiPS is less than 5 Rating Points.

It's interesting to also note that ChiPS now has 12 teams rated 998 (ie roughly 'average') or higher, and that MARS, similarly, has 11 teams rated 1,004.5 or higher.

The two Systems differ by more than two places in their rankings only of:

  • Collingwood, ranked 4th on ChiPS and 7th on MARS
  • West Coast, ranked 7th on ChiPS and 4th on MARS
  • Adelaide, ranked 12th on ChiPS and 9th on MARS

Looking across the team rankings of all four Systems and comparing them with the current competition ladder, we find that:

  • Still, GWS's and Gold Coast's ladder positions are most different from their average Rating System ranking. GWS are ranked higher by the two MoS Rating Systems than their ladder position, while Gold Coast is uniformly ranked lower than its ladder position.
  • Sydney (2nd to 7th) is ranked five places differently across the Rating Systems.
  • Collingwood (2nd to 7th), Geelong (3rd to 8th), and GWS (5th to 10th), are also ranked five places differently.
  • West Coast (3rd to 7th) is ranked four places differently across the Rating Systems.
  • No other team is ranked more than three places differently across the Rating Systems.