2018 - Round 24 : The MoS Twins Are No Fans of Sydney

It seems very early, I know, to be posting forecasts about Finals that are over a week away, but one of the advantages of player-ignorant models is that they are, well, ignorant about players.

To those ignorant forecasts then.


The only dissension this week comes in the form of MoS twin dissension, and even then only in a single game. They've both opted for GWS over Sydney.

(Note that Home Sweet Home this week selects the notional home teams - which this week are actual home teams - and that Consult The Ladder selects the teams that finished higher during the home and away season, which it will also do in subsequent weeks, regardless of which team is notionally or actually playing at home.)

That, of course, means that ENS_Linear, Bookie Knows Best and the two RSMP Tipsters are, yet again, in complete alignment, so there'll be no movement at the top of the Leaderboard once more this week. ENS_Linear is looking very good for the title now.

For the Margin Predictors, it's C_Marg as the standout in the Richmond v Hawthorn game, and the MoS twins as the standouts in the Sydney v GWS game, in a round where the levels of agreement are generally high.

As a result, on a game-by-game basis, only the Sydney v GWS game has generated a mean absolute deviation (MAD) over 3.5 points per Predictor. It's 6.1 in that game, and the forecasts span almost 5 goals.

In comparison to the current leader, Bookie_Hcap, a best set of results for MoSSBODS_Marg would see it move from about 111 points behind to about 76 points behind, while a best set of results for MoSHBODS_Marg would see it move from about 217 to about 197 points behind.

Turning lastly to the Head-to-Head Probability Predictors, we find the highest MAD in the same game where the MAD is also highest amongst the Margin Predictors: the Sydney v GWS game where the Probability Predictors' MAD is almost 8% points per Predictor and the range of probability estimates spans 29% points. MoSSBODS_Prob really doesn't think the Swans have much of a shot, and MoSHBODS_Prob thinks they'll most-likely lose, too.


There's no wagering on weekdays in the first week of the Finals, the sole bets coming on the two Saturday games.

Perhaps unsurprisingly there are bets from MoSHBODS and MoSSBODS on GWS, and one more from MoSHBODS in the head-to-head market on Collingwood.

(Please click on the image below to access a larger version.)

The GWS game then, obviously, carries the largest potential swing, with the difference between a win by GWS and a loss by 7 points or more equal to almost 6% of the original Combined Portfolio.

In the only other game in which Investors have a wager, the potential swing is a mere 0.7c, though that swing could be trigger by a mere goal or a couple of behinds.

The detailed impacts are in this week's Ready Reckoner, which appears at left.

In total, 3.3% of the original Combined Portfolio is at risk across two games, and the maximum upside is 3.4%. 

To finish, here are MoSHBODS' and MoSSBODS' opinions about likely team scoring.

Commentary about these forecasts will come in the week's Overs/Unders blog.