2017 - Round 7 Results - Consult The Ladder Bags a Bagel

What an extraordinary round that was, with every one of the nine victors a team that started the week lower on the competition ladder than did the team they beat.

That means, by definition, that Consult The Ladder scored 0 from 9, which was three fewer than any other of the MoS Head-to-Head Tipsters.

Home Sweet Home recorded the round's best score of 6 from 9, two better than any other Tipster, MoSSBODS_Marg and the two RSMP Tipsters all being next best with 4 from 9.

That leaves MoSSBODS_Marg alone at the top of the Leaderboard on 41 from 63 (65%), one tip clear of ENS_Linear and the two RSMP Tipsters.

Speaking of the RSMPs, the pair recorded the two best mean absolute errors (MAE) for the round and were the only Predictors registering sub-32 MAE.s They now fill 3rd and 4th places on the Leaderboard, ahead of MoSSBODS_Marg (who recorded the 5th-best MAE) and MoSHBODS_Marg (who recorded the 4th-best MAE).

The all-Predictor MAE for the round was 34.8 points per Predictor per game.

Only three Predictors now have profitable season-long line betting records, the MoS twins and Bookie_LPSO.

On head-to-head probability estimation no Predictor recorded a positive score this week, but MoSHBODS_Prob's score was least negative, catapulting it into second spot on the ladder, narrowly ahead of Bookie_OE. MoSSBODS_Prob's score was similar to the three bookmaker-based Predictors', which was good enough to leave it atop the Leaderboard.

C_Prob had a very forgettable round, its probability estimates attracting the worst single-round probability score of any Predictor this season.


Anecdotally - which, for me, is code for I've neither the time nor inclination to verify it with data - MoS wagering is best served by a handful of underdog victories. That's a good description of this week's result set, which saw:

  • The Head-to-Head Fund land 4 of 5 wagers for an 8.5c gain to leave it up by 26c on the season
  • The Line Fund land 3 of 5 wagers for a 4c gain to leave it up by 17c on the season
  • The Over/Under Fund land 2 of 2 wagers for a 3.5c gain to leave it essentially at breakeven for the season

All up, that made for a 4.7c increase in the price of the Overall Portfolio, which now stands at $1.12. 

It's obviously been a pleasing season so far, but the one disappointment is that performance of the Over/Under Fund. 

Still, it is only Round 7 ...