2017 - Round 13 : Overs/Unders Update

MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS both think we'll see over 200 points in Saturday's Port Adelaide v Brisbane Lions game, though they differ in the proportions of those points that they expect the two teams to record.

The TAB joins the MoS twins in forecasting a 200-plus total for that game, but expects Port Adelaide to score less and the Brisbane Lions to score more than do either of the twins. Nonetheless, all four forecasters agree that the Brisbane Lions are likely to be the round's low-scoring team, and Port Adelaide the round's high-scoring team.

The four also agree that the Richmond v Sydney clash is likely to be the round's low-scoring game, producing somewhere in the vicinity of 160 to 170 points.

Overall, the MoS twins have away teams scoring slightly fewer points than do the TAB and Centrebet bookmakers, with the result that the twins expect the average total game score to come in about 2 to 3 points lower.


Making up somewhat for the dearth of wagering activity in the head-to-head and line markets, MoSHBODS has this week opted for wagers in four of the six available markets.

The overlays for all four of those wagers are relatively narrow, however, each only about 6 or 7 points and therefore only just above the minimum threshold.

Last week, none of the forecasters really shone as a game margin predictor, the TAB's mean absolute error (MAE) of 41.2 points per game proving to be best. Centrebet did best on Home team scores (17.4), MoSHBODS on Away team scores (26.9), and MoSSBODS - for the second time in a row and for third time in five weeks - performed best on Total scores.

That still leaves MoSHBODS with the best season-long performance on game margin, Home team and Away team scores, and Centrebet best on Totals, though only fractionally ahead of the TAB.

MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS now both have 54 from 102 (53%) records against TAB Totals, while MoSSBODS has a 54 from 102 (53%) record against Centrebet Totals compared to MoSHBODS' 58 from 102 (57%) record.