2017 - Round 10 : Overs/Unders Update

This week, the two MoS and the two bookmakers all expect the average game to produce about 182 points, though they get to that average by different routes.

The two MoS have about:

  • 9 point higher Totals for the Geelong v Port Adelaide game
  • 10 point lower Totals for the Sydney v Hawthorn game
  • 22 point higher Totals for the Collingwood v Brisbane Lions game, and
  • 15 point lower Totals for the Carlton v Kangaroos game.

The two MoS also have Collingwood as the round's most-likely high-scoring team while the two bookmakers have Adelaide in that role. All four agree though that Hawthorn, Fremantle and the Brisbane Lions will be the three lowest-scoring teams, albeit with slightly different orderings.

Those four relatively large differences in opinions about game Totals listed above have all led to over/under wagers, joined by one more wager on the Dees v Suns game where the difference between MoSSBODS' and Centrebet's view is 7.5 points.

Those five wagers put 10% of the original Over/Under Fund at risk and, combined with the head-to-head and line wagers, mean that 8.5% of the original Overall Portfolio is at risk, the third-lowest proportion for a single round this season.

They also mean that, after 10 rounds, the Over/Under Fund has turned over just under 1 time, compared with 1.5 times for the Head-to-Head Fund, and just over 1 time for the Line Fund. Combined, the Overall Portfolio has turned 1.1 times.


Last week, MoSHBODS turned in the lowest mean absolute error (MAE) for game margins and for Away team scores, while Centrebet snagged low MAE for Totals and Home team scores.

Across the entire season, the low MAEs for these four metrics are distributed now in exactly the same way: to MoSHBODS for Margins and Home team scores, and to Centrebet for Totals and Away team scores.

It's also interesting to note the pattern of errors so far this season, which reveal that all four forecasters have:

  • Over-estimated game margins (from the Home team's perspective) by about 1 to 4 points, on average
  • Over-estimated Home team scores by about 0.5 to 1 point, on average
  • Under-estimated Away team scores by about 0.5 to 4 points, on average
  • Under-estimated Total scores by about 0.5 to 1 point, on average