2016 Round 20 : Good Dogs?

We've seven wagers this week, three head-to-head and four line, all of them on underdogs.

The twin wagers on the Dees carry the largest upside, an upset victory by them capable of boosting the Overall Portfolio by 6c.

It's the Dogs though that control the largest downside, a loss by them by 5 points or more threatening to lop 1.7c off the value of the Overall Portfolio.

Combined, the seven bets represent a total risk of 4.6% of the original Overall Portfolio and a maximum reward of 9.6%.


This week it's really only Home Sweet Home that's injecting much dissension into the Head-to-Head Tipsters' collective opinion, its 61% Disagreement Index pushing the all-Tipster figure up to a still-low 16%.

In fact, it's only in the Dogs v Roos game where we find any disagreement (except Home Sweet Home's) at all. In that game, Consult The Ladder, the three MoSSBODS_Marg-based Tipsters, and C_Marg have all joined Home Sweet Home in tipping an upset Dogs victory.

Amongst the Margin Predictors, disagreement is also fairly low again this week. The all-Predictor mean absolute deviation (MAD) is just 5.3 points per game per Predictor, bumped up by Bookie_9's MAD of 7.4, ENS_Linear_MoSS's 7.0, ENS_Greedy_MoSS's 6.5, and MoSSBODS_Marg's 6.4. Bookie_9 is Predictor Most Extreme in 4 games this week though, surprisingly, MoSSBODS_Marg is Predictor Most Extreme in none.

Looking from a game-by-game viewpoint, it's the Geelong v Essendon matchup where disagreement is highest, the MAD for that game almost 14 points per Predictor and the range spanning a 6-goal margin.

The only other game where the MAD is significantly above the all-game average is Friday's Richmond v Collingwood clash where it's 6.9 points per Predictor and where the range of predictions spans 28 points.

Turning next to the Head-to-Head Probability Predictors we find high levels of agreement here too, with the all-Predictor MAD coming in at just 2.9% points per Predictor per game. C_Prob has the largest MAD of just 4.0% points per game and is Predictor Most Extreme in 5 games, while MoSSBODS_Prob has the next-largest MAD of 3.6% points per game and is Predictor Most Extreme in 6 games.


Four home teams this week are assessed by MoSSBODS as enjoying no net benefit from the choice of venue for their match, given the teams they are facing. Richmond suffers a 0.2 Scoring Shot (SS) "penalty" in facing Collingwood at the MCG, Melbourne an 0.6 SS "penalty" facing Hawthorn at the same ground, the Western Bulldogs are effectively on even terms with the Kangaroos at Docklands, and Fremantle offer West Coast an 0.5 SS boost at Subiaco.

In none of those games, however, is that impost telling, Collingwood, Hawthorn, the Western Bulldogs and West Coast all having comfortably higher Combined Ratings than their opponents.

Only three teams are expected to score over 100 points this week, Adelaide (147), GWS (114) and Geelong (107), though two other teams are expected to go close - Sydney (99) and Hawthorn (98).

Adelaide is also expected to play in the highest-scoring game of the round (214 points), while the Fremantle v West Coast game is expected to be the round's low-scoring fixture, the two sides mustering only 156 points between them.