2016 - Team Ratings After Round 15

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A fairly quiet week for MoS' traditional Rating Systems, with MARS moving only six teams in total and just three teams by more than a single spot, and ChiPS also moving only six teams in total and just one by more than a single spot.

Sydney and Melbourne were the only multi-spot descenders on MARS, falling two places each into 4th and 13th, respectively, while West Coast enjoyed the greatest lift, rising three places into top shot, which perhaps seems a little extraordinary until you recognise that the Eagles:

  • Have generated the 4th-highest number of Scoring Shots of all the teams
  • Have conceded the 4th-lowest number of Scoring Shots
  • Are 2nd on Scoring Shot conversion
  • Are 3rd on Opponents' Scoring Shot conversion

That said, ChiPS doesn't rate the Eagles quite so highly, but still ranks them 3rd.

The largest discrepancies in MARS' and ChiPS' team rankings are now for:

  • Adelaide, ranked 2nd by MARS and 5th by ChiPS
  • Geelong, ranked 5th by MARS and 2nd by ChiPS
  • GWS, ranked 6th by MARS and 1st by ChiPS
  • Hawthorn, ranked 3rd by MARS and 7th by ChiPS

The correlation between the two Systems' raw ratings now stands at +0.986.

With Richmond losing 2.6 Ratings Points (RPs) this week on MARS and transferring them to Port Adelaide, the gap between these two teams has now widened to almost 22 RPs, leaving us with 9 teams rated about 1,015 or higher and 9 teams rated 993 or lower.

On ChiPS, the gap between Port Adelaide (8th) and Richmond (9th) is smaller at just 5.9 RPs, but that between the Dogs (7th) and Port Adelaide is larger at almost 9 RPs. On MARS that gap is only 1.8 RPs. (I should note that MARS and ChiPS RPs are not entirely equivalent - in previous analyses I've found that MARS' differences should be reduced by about 25% to make them comparable to ChiPS', which are measured in actual points).

MoSSBODS RATINGS

On MoSSBODS, seven teams changed ranking this week, though that included only two teams from the top nine, Sydney and West Coast swapping 5th and 6th places.

Further down the order were the only multiple-spot moves, St Kilda falling two places into 13th, the Brisbane Lions falling two places into last, and the Gold Coast climbing two places into 16th. None of those changes seem likely to have a bearing on any of these teams' Finals chances.

Offensive and Defensive rankings were far more dynamic, with 10 teams changing their Offensive ranking (though only two by more than a single spot) and nine teams changing their Defensive ranking including a four-spot drop into 15th by St Kilda, and a three-spot climb into 9th by Carlton.

On Combined Ratings, MoSSBODS now differs most from both MARS and ChiPS in its rankings of:

  • The Western Bulldogs, ranked 4th by MoSSBODS but 8th by MARS and ChiPS
  • West Coast, ranked 6th by MoSSBODS but 1st by MARS and 3rd by ChiPS

Putting the current team ratings in an historical context reveals that the Crows and the Cats remain rated at levels around the top decile of all previous Grand Finalists at the equivalent point in the season, while GWS, the Western Bulldogs and Sydney are rated nearer the median of those teams.

Amongst the other teams with the strongest claims for a spot in the Finals, West Coast and Hawthorn are rated slightly below the median rating of previous Grand Finalists, while Port Adelaide and North Melbourne at rated at roughly their 9th decile. 

Collingwood is the only other team to have a Combined rating higher than the lowest-ever Combined rating for a Grand Finalist after 15 rounds of the home-and-away season.

Finally, here's an animation showing each team's rating as at the end of every round, projected onto a backdrop of the ratings of every other team in history at the same point in their respective seasons.