2016 Round 18 : A Better Balance

This week, Investors face no especially high-stakes games. the most radical head-to-head wager priced at just $2.60 and the largest line bet sized at just 1.5% of the Fund.

In total, the eight bets - four head-to-head and four line - are split evenly in numerical terms on underdogs and favourites, and represent only 5.8% of the initial Overall Portfolio. The associated ready reckoner appears below.

Port Adelaide can provide the round's largest single-game return should they spring the upset on GWS. That result would add just over 2c to the value of the Overall Portfolio. Collingwood, should they defeat the Kangaroos, can add just slightly less than 2c to the Portfolio.


In four of this week's games the Head-to-Head Tipsters are unanimous, lining up as one behind the Swans, Eagles, Dogs and Hawks. In another, it's only Consult The Ladder preventing the clean sweep, it opting for the Lions over the Dons.

C_Marg and Home Sweet Home are the sole supporters of Port Adelaide in the final round of the game, and it's Consult The Ladder and the two MoSSBODS-based ensembles alone in tipping the Crows to upset the Cats on Saturday. In another Saturday game, the two MoSSBODS-based ensembles have joined with MoSSBODS_Marg itself to be the only ones tipping a Dockers upset.

Lastly, in Friday night's game, it's the MoSSBODS trio and Consult The Ladder that have opted for a Pies upset victory. As a result, it's Consult The Ladder and the two MoSSBODS-based ensembles that have recorded the round's highest Disagreement Indexes.

The two MoSSBODS-based ensembles have also registered two of the three highest mean absolute deviations (MADs) this week, C_Marg being the other Predictor in that trio. MoSSBODS_Marg has been uncharacteristically non-deviant, its 4.7 MAD only slightly above the all-Predictor average of 4.4 points.

Looking across the games we see that it's the Gold Coast v Fremantle game that has the highest MAD, though at 6.0 points per Predictor it's only slightly higher than the MAD of 5.9 for the Collingwood v Kangaroos game. Other high MADS have been registered for the Essendon v Brisbane Lions game (5.5 points) and the Hawthorn v Richmond game (5.4 points).

Amongst the Head-to-Head Probability Predictors, MoSSBODS_Prob has the highest MAD this week, just slightly ahead of C_Prob. MoSSBODS_Prob's high MAD is on the back of being Predictor Most Extreme in six contests, two more than both C_Prob and Bookie_LPSO.

Three games have significantly above-average MADs: Gold v Fremantle (7.1% points), Collingwood v Kangaroos (6.4% points), and Port Adelaide v GWS (6.2% points). In all three cases, C_Prob and MoSSBODS_Prob are big contributors to those MADs.


Collingwood and the Western Bulldogs are the only home teams this week suffering from a negative Net Venue Effect despite being the designated home teams. 

In Collingwood's case, that deduction has almost been enough to switch it from favourite to underdog according to MoSSBODS. As it is, the Pies remain the narrowest of favourites, tipped to win by +0.04 Scoring Shots. The Dogs, despite their deduction, remain about 4-goal favourites over the Saints, according to MoSSBODS.

The Pies v Roos game aside, three other games are also tipped to be won by about a goal or less: Suns v Dockers, Cats v Crows, and Power v Giants. Could it be that we'll see the first draw of the season this weekend?

MoSSBODS has the Swans v Blues game as the round's lowest scoring, that game expected to produce just 141 points, with two-thirds of them coming from the Swans. Sunday's Port Adelaide v GWS game is tipped to be the round's highest scoring, likely to generate just under 200 points.

Four teams are predicted to score 100 points: West Coast, Essendon, Hawthorn and GWS. Four others are expected to score fewer than 75: Carlton, Melbourne, Richmond and St Kilda.