2016 Round 13 : Betting on the Dogs (No, the other ones ...)

In this week's truncated round, five of the six home teams have been installed as underdogs by the TAB. Neither the Line Fund nor the Head-to-Head Fund wants anything to do with the lone home team favourite, the Swans, nor are they at all interested in the shortest price of the home team underdogs, the Dogs.

Instead, they've been attracted, moth-like, to a couple of rank outsiders in the form of the Lions and the Dons. Fortunately, they've also found room for some bets on a moderate (Roos) and a mild (Dockers) underdog.

Inflated by the size of a couple of the line bets, this week's total wagering comes in at 7.5% of the initial Overall Portfolio, and that's with Overs/Unders wagering yet to come.

The games with those sizeable line bets dominate this week's ready reckoner, which reminds me of the menu at a restaurant you know you really shouldn't be be eating at.

If, at least, the four line bets land, then the loss will be contained to a manageable 1c. Other, more favourable result sets are possible, of course, though all are less likely.


Only the Fremantle v Port Adelaide game has posed much of a challenge to MoS' Head-to-Head Tipsters this week, with the final result being a 6-5 majority for the away team favourites. In other games, the Swans have received unanimous support, Brisbane and Essendon have enjoyed only the support of Home Sweet Home, the Dogs have been tipped by the unlikely pairing of Home Sweet Home and the in-form C_Marg, and the Kangaroos have attracted only Home Sweet Home and Consult The Ladder.

Amongst the Margin Predictors the debate is mostly about by how much West Coast and GWS will win, the mean absolute deviation (MAD) in both those games greater than 9 points per Predictor. In all four other games the MADs are 4 points per Predictor or less.

C_Prob has made a few bold probability assessments this week, rating the Kangaroos (46%), Fremantle (61%), Western Bulldogs (53%), and Melbourne (19%) more highly than any other Probability Predictor.


MoSSBODS has all six home teams enjoying net venue benefits this week, the magnitude of the boost ranging from +0.1 to +3.3 Scoring Shots (SS).

The Lions v Eagles game is predicted to be the highest-scoring game of the round, though even it is expected to produce only 178 points. Conversely, the round's last three games are forecast to be the lowest-scoring affairs, producing only about 160 points each.

Unperturbed by the fact that last week saw all nine winning teams score 100 points or more for the first time since 2013, MoSSBODS has tipped only two teams to achieve this feat this weekend: West Coast and GWS. The Giants' opponents, Essendon, are tipped to be the lowest-scoring team of the round, the forecast for them just 55 points.