2016 - Round 5 Results - Yeah, Had That Coming ...

At some point, the freakishly good start to the season's wagering had to end, and if this is as bad as it gets I think I'll be okay with that. (And, let's be honest, who says I get to choose?)

All three head-to-head and all three line wagers were unsuccessful this weekend, and only two of the five overs/unders were on the right side of the divide, which meant that the Head-to-Head Fund dropped 7.5%, the Line Fund dropped 2.3%, and the Overs/Unders Fund dropped 1%, for an Overall Portfolio loss of 4.4c. That's the Portfolio's first loss of the season, but it remains 21c up on the year.


Only one favourite and one equal-favourite lost this week, which made for generally high scores amongst the Head-to-Head Tipsters. Best were BKB (who tipped Melbourne in the game where they were equal-favourites with Richmond) and ENS_Greedy, both of whom scored 8 from 9 in a round where the all-Tipster average was 6.9 from 9.

MoSSBODS_Marg bagged 7 from 9, which saw it skip two tips clear at the head of the Leaderboard, now on 34 from 45 (76%).

With seven victory margins exceeding 5 goals, the Margin Predictors recorded higher-than-average mean absolute errors (MAEs) this week, the all-Predictor average coming in at 33.4 points per game per Predictor. (For some reason, Bookie_Hcap, the Predictor based on the TAB Line market handicap, has not been appearing in previous dashboards. It is now, and its relatively parlous performance hints at why so many of the Predictors have better than chance line betting records so far this season. Its own record on line betting is, of course, by definition 50%.)

The best MAE this week was Bookie_3's at 31.7 points per game, ahead of Bookie_LPSO's 32.5 and RSMP_Simple's 32.8 points per game. Near-worst was MoSSBODS_Marg's 34.7, but it still clings onto 1st place on the Leaderboard but now only by the barest of margins - just 2.5 points.

MoSSBODS_Marg's strength so far this season has not been tipping very near the final margin very often, but instead avoiding being very distant from the final margin. It's tipped within a goal of the final margin only 7% of the time but has been 6 goals or more distant only 18% of the time, the least often of all the Predictors.

Bookie_OE recorded the round's best probability score, although the gap between it and the worst Predictor, MoSSBODS_Prob, was fairly small. As a result, MoSSBODS_Prob still tops the Leaderboard.