2015 - Round 18 Results: Directionally Correct

Investors enjoyed only their second profitable round in nine weeks as Port Adelaide, their sole wager, comfortably covered the spread to add 4.5c to the Line Fund and 3c to the Overall Portfolio. That portfolio is now down by about 33c on the season.

There is, still, much work to be done.


The season's first draw meant that all of the Head-to-Head Tipsters were guaranteed one-half a tip this week, though most added another six to that half, that being the number of successful favourites in the round.

Overall, the all-Tipster average came in at 6.0 correct tips per Tipster, this average dragged down most of all by Easily Impressed II's low score of 2.5 and by the fact that no Tipster correctly predicted more than 6.5 of the results.

Combo_7 still leads out, one half a tip ahead of Bookie_3 and now with 108.5 correct tips from 152 (71%). 

This week's most accurate margin predicting came from those Margin Predictors at the foot of the Leaderboard, with the all-Predictor low Mean Absolute Errors (MAEs) of about 33.1 points per game attributable to Win_3 and Win_7, who fill the bottom two places on that listing. The all-Predictor average of 37.5 points per game per Predictor was the 4th-highest average for a round this season.

C_Marg's MAE of 37.6 points per game was just above this average but was nonetheless low enough to allow it to retain its number 1 spot on the Leaderboard where it now enjoys an 84 point lead over RSMP_Weighted and is the only Margin Predictor with a sub-30 MAE.

Overall, there was very little movement on the Margin Predictor Leaderboard, with only ENS_Linear and Bookie_LPSO swapping positions, and H2H_Unadj_10 and H2H_Adj_7 doing the same thing.

Only three Margin Predictors now have season-long profitable line betting records: C_Marg, Bookie_3, and Combo_NN2.

In much the same way as it was Margin Predictors from the lower portions of their Leaderboard excelling this week, it was the Head-to-Head Probability Predictors from the lower portion of that Leaderboard doing likewise, WinPred producing the round's highest log probability score, ProPred the second-highest, and the H2H algorithms the third-highest.

The all-Predictor average was neither exceptionally good nor exceptionally poor, its value of +0.16 bits per game per Predictor the 10th-highest of the season and, therefore, also the 9th-lowest. 

Bookie-OE continues to lead the competition, narrowly ahead of Bookie-RE. Bookie-LPSO and C_Prob are still not without chances though.

The Line Fund algorithm recorded another mildly negative average probability score for the round, its 8th such score in 11 weeks.