2015 - Round 10 Results: Nothing Miraculous

Investors suffered yet another loss this week, the Roos' win over the Eagles the only thing preventing a dreaded "no-collect" round. That win allowed the Head-to-Head Fund to land one of its five wagers, and the Line Fund to land one of its three, but still meant that the Head-to-Head Fund shed 3.4c and the Line Fund 2.8c. The combined loss of 3c leaves the Overall Portfolio down by 11.4c on the season.


Seven favourites won this week, which lifted the all-Tipster performance of the Head-to-Head Tipsters to a respectable 6.5 from 9, the fourth-highest average for a single round this season. Home Sweet Home suffered from the generally poor performances of home teams which saw them win only three of the week's contests. As a consequence, it recorded the round's lowest score.

Best amongst the Head-to-Head Tipsters were Bookie_9 and Easily Impressed II, who each bagged 8 from 9. That result for Bookie_9 was enough to elevate it into joint-leadership on the MoS Leaderboard, a position it now shares with BKB, Bookie_3 and Combo_7. They're all on 62 from 90 (69%) for the season.

MatterOfStats' Official Head-to-Head Tipster, Win_3, remains four tips behind the leaders.

It was another good round for the Margin Predictors too, their all-Predictor Mean Absolute Error (MAE) of 25.2 points per game the third-lowest for the season. Best was Bookie_LPSO's 21.4 points per game, but five other Predictors also managed to produce sub-25 MAEs, including MatterOfStats' Official Margin Predictor, Combo_7, whose MAE was 22.8 points per game.

The two ENS Predictors were also among those registering low MAEs, so low in their cases that it allowed them to slot into the first two positions on the MoS Leaderboard, relegating RSMP_Weighted to 3rd and C_Marg to 4th.

At the end of Round 10, only C_Marg, Bookie_3 and Combo_NN2 still have season-long profitable margin-predicting performances in the context of the line market.

For the Head-to-Head Probability Predictors it was also a good week, their second-best week of the season and poorer only than last week. All recorded positive probability scores and best amongst them, very narrowly, was ProPred, with Bookie-RE producing a near-identical score. The MoS Leaderboard remains, however, with Bookie-OE, MoS' Official Predictor, at the top, Bookie-RE in 2nd, and Bookie-LPSO in 3rd.

The Line Fund algorithm registered a mildly negative probability score for the round, which left it with a season-long negative average score, but a score a little higher than it was at the end of Round 9.