2015 - Round 9 Results: A Modest Return

I was tempted to fashion a title for today's blog around the theme "Pies reheated during half-time break" to reflect Collingwood's remarkable reversal of form in the second half of their match against the Roos, but gave up when I couldn't find something snappy enough. So, as least you were saved from that.

Regardless of their failure to receive recognition in the blog title, the Pies were certainly rewarded on the footy field and transferred some of that reward onto Investors in the form of a successful head-to-head wager. That win was one of three for the Head-to-Head Fund this weekend from its four wagers, the aggregate profit from which was just under 5c and left the Fund down now by only 5.7c on the season.

The Line Fund was less fortunate, landing just two collects from its four wagers though it did miss out on a third collect on the Swans by only half a point. It finished the round down by another half a cent and is now down by just over 10c on the season. Combined, the Head-to-Head Fund's and Line Fund's efforts lifted the value of the Overall Portfolio by 1.6c, but it remains down by 8.6c on the season.

The good news for Investors is that the Portfolio has increased in value in two of the past three weeks, though the ongoing patchy form of the Line Fund remains a concern.


Two Head-to-Head Tipsters, H2H_Unadj_10 and H2H_Adj_7, picked the card this weekend, a result that catapulted the first of them into a position just two tips behind the leading pack. That pack still comprises BKB, Bookie_3 and Combo_7, which all bagged just 6 from 9 over the weekend.

Even the worst Tipsters managed 5 from 9 though, so the all-Tipster average came in at a relatively high 6.9 from 9, the second-highest average for a single round so far this season.

The Margin Predictors went one-better than the Head-to-Head Tipsters, their collective Mean Absolute Error (MAE) of 23.3 points per Predictor per game the best single round performance by them collectively this season, bettering the 24.4 points per game result from Round 1.

The round's best MAEs belonged to Win_3 and Win_7, with both being the only Predictors to produce sub-20 MAEs. The Predictors at the top of the table performed a little less well than this, but C_Marg's 22.8 points per game was the best amongst them, preserving its position at the top of the Ladder, a position it's now held for two weeks running, a feat it had repeated earlier in the season (assuming it's possible to repeat something earlier) at the end of Rounds 4 and 5. RSMP_Weighted held on to 2nd place, while the two ENS-based Predictors traded 3rd and 4th spots between them, as you can see from the chart below.

C_Marg remains one of only four Predictors now with profitable season-long line betting records, the others being ENS_Linear, Bookie_3 and Combo_NN2.

The Win family Margin Predictors' strong showing was mirrored in WinPred's performance amongst the Head-to-Head Probability Predictors. Its score of 0.469 bits per game this weekend was bettered only by the H2H family's 0.475 bits per game, these results along with ProPred's 0.378 bits per game ensuring that all Probability Predictors now have season-long positive probability scores.

Amongst the Predictors battling for Top 4 spots, C_Prob returned the week's best result, but this wasn't sufficient to move it any higher than 4th on the Ladder, which Bookie-OE still sits atop.

And, to complete the round's mostly good news, the Line Fund algorithm turned in its first positive probability score in three weeks, nudging its overall performance a little closer to zero in doing so.