2015 - Team Ratings After Round 6

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Outside of the top 4, all but one of the teams changed their Ranking on ChiPS this week, the most significant falls being the Pies' and the Dogs' three-spot declines, and the most significant climb being the Roos' three-spot ascension.

Those moves leave five teams in both the competition's and ChiPS' Top 8 teams: Hawthorn, Fremantle, West Coast, Sydney and Collingwood. Adelaide, GWS and the Western Bulldogs fill the remaining three spots on the competition ladder, while the teams occupying positions 9th through 11th on the ladder (the Kangaroos, Port Adelaide and Essendon) fill out ChiPS' Top 8.

MARS' Rankings were a little more stable than ChiPS' this week. Only 10 teams saw their MARS Ranking change, and just two of those changed by more than a spot, the Tigers and the Cats swapping 11th and 8th spots between them. That left the Top 8 MARS Ranked teams also including only five of the competition's Top 8, though for MARS the missing three from the competition ladder were GWS, Collingwood and the Western Bulldogs, and the replacements were Port Adelaide, the Kangaroos and Geelong.

It's no bad thing at all, but team MARS Ratings this year seem a little more compressed than they were at the same stage last year, as evidenced by the following:

  • Difference Between MARS Rating of 4th and 15th Ranked Teams: 35.6 (2014) v 34.9 (2015)
  • Difference Between MARS Rating of 4th and 8th Ranked Teams: 13.1 (2014) v 11.9 (2015)
  • Number of Teams MARS Rated Over 1,000: 11 (2014) v 9 (2015)

The correlation between ChiPS and MARS Ratings remains high and stands now at +0.96, with only three teams currently Ranked more than two places differently by the two Systems:

  • Essendon, Ranked 7th on ChiPS and 10th on MARS
  • Adelaide (10th and 6th)
  • Geelong (11th and 8th)

Colley, Massey and ODM SYSTEMS

This week, the smallest team rank correlation between any pair of Systems is +0.703, which is the correlation associated with ChiPS and Colley Rankings, while the highest of +0.993 is associated with Massey and ODM Rankings, the latter pair agreeing precisely on the most appropriate Ranking of 15 of the 18 teams. Only the Ranking of Essendon sees them disagreeing by more than a single place, Massey Ranking the Dons 9th and ODM Ranking them 11th.

ChiPS finds itself this week significantly different in its Ranking of Adelaide, which it Ranks 10th while the other Systems Rank the Crows no lower than 7th. Colley is most aberrant in its Ranking of two teams: the Hawks, which it Ranks 8th while the other Systems Rank them no lower than 2nd, and the Western Bulldogs, which it Ranks 3rd while the other Systems variously Rank them between 6th and 13th.

MARS is boldest in its Ranking only of the Cats, which it places 8th, at least 3 spots higher than any other System. Massey and ODM meantime find themselves broadly in agreement with at least each other, as already noted, if not with other Systems.

ODM Offensive and Defensive Rankings

Collingwood and Hawthorn have this week fallen out of the ODM System's Top 5 Defensive teams, replaced by Essendon and Port Adelaide, while the Dogs have tumbled out of the Top 5 Offensive teams, replaced by the Crows.

The week's moves have left eight teams with significantly different Offensive and Defensive Rankings, five teams from last week's list of six, and three new entrants. The eight teams are:

  • Adelaide (Ranked 11th on Defence and 4th on Offence)
  • Hawthorn (6th and 1st)
  • The Kangaroos (14th and 9th)
  • St Kilda (15th and 10th)
  • Collingwood (7th and 13th)
  • Essendon (4th and 16th [sic])
  • Melbourne (10th and 17th)
  • Sydney (2nd and 7th)

PREDICTIVE ACCURACY

MARS extended its lead over ChiPS, Colley and the Defensive component of the ODM System this week, and now sits two tips clear of ChiPS, 11 clear of Colley, and nine clear of ODM-Defence in terms of simple predictive accuracy.

Massey remains 6 tips adrift, while ODM and the Offensive component of the ODM System still find themselves having tipped correctly 7 games fewer than MARS.