2014 - Team Ratings After Round 16

Six teams changed places on ChiPS' Rankings this week, though only Carlton (up 2) and West Coast (down 2) moved by more than a single place. ChiPS remains firmly unconvinced about the Suns' credentials, Ranking them 12th despite their sitting in 8th on the competition ladder. 

It's also unimpressed by the Cats, which it Ranks 8th, ignoring its 5th placing on the ladder. Conversely, it Ranks the Tigers more highly than their current ladder position, putting them in 9th, three spots above their 12th-placed competition ladder positioning. No other teams are Ranked by ChiPS more than two places differently from their competition ladder positioning.

Compared to MARS, ChiPS differs in its team Rankings by more than a single place only for Geelong, which MARS Ranks 5th and ChiPS 8th, Carlton, which MARS Ranks 13th and ChiPS 11th, and West Coast, which MARS Ranks 11th and ChiPS 13th.

Hawthorn, now Ranked 1st by ChiPS, dropped Rating Points (RPs) this week for the first time since Round 11, while Sydney, Ranked 2nd, gained RPs for the first time since Round 12. Collingwood extended its run of RP declines to five, Geelong extended its to three, but St Kilda has outdone them both having now shed RPs in 10 consecutive games and in 13 of the 15 rounds its played this season.

Looking at the history of ChiPS and MARS Ratings, it's interesting to note how many of the teams' Ratings have been firmly trending in one direction or the other since about Round 4. Only GWS and, maybe, Hawthorn, Port Adelaide and West Coast don't fit that description.

Team Rankings of the five Rating Systems remain generally consistent this week, with any significant differences only notable for Carlton, Ranked more lowly by Colley, and Richmond, Ranked more highly by ChiPS. Even Colley is now convinced that Melbourne don't deserve to be Ranked in the top dozen or so teams.

ODM this week substantially down-ranked the Cats' and the Eagles' Offences, and the Blues' and the Hawks' Defences. It also substantially up-ranked the Crows', Freo's and the Roos' Offences, and the Dons' and the Eagles' Defences.

Essendon, Gold Coast, GWS, Hawthorn and Melbourne are now the teams with the most notable differences between their Offensive and Defensive Rankings.

Choosing the higher-Rated team to win in every game, we find Colley falling a further tip behind MARS this week and ODM Offensive narrowing the gap to MARS and the other Systems above it by a single tip.

ChiPS remains the best Head-to-Head Predictor across the entire season based on this simple prediction methodology, though it has gone tip-for-tip with MARS since about Round 9.