2014 - Team Ratings After Round 15

There's not been a lot of movement on team Ratings and Rankings as a consequence of Round 15 results, so there'll be fairly minimal commentary this week.

ChiPS, for example, re-ranked only six teams, none by more a single place, swapping Sydney and Port Adelaide, West Coast and Gold Coast, and the Brisbane Lions and GWS.

Hawthorn recorded its fourth consecutive Ratings increase this week, while GWS racked up its fifth increase despite going down to the Swans by 46 points. In contrast, the Pies registered their fourth straight Ratings decline even though they beat the Blues by 15 points.

That means that, over the last five rounds, 13 teams' ChiPS Ranking have changed, though only three have altered by more than a single place: the Swans, up three places; the Cats, down four places; and the Saints, down three places.

Only three team's Ranking now differs on ChiPS by more than two places compared to its Ranking on MARS: Geelong, Ranked 7th on ChiPS and 5th on MARS; Richmond, Ranked 9th on ChiPS and 11th on MARS; and West Coast, Ranked 11th on ChiPS and 9th on MARS.

As well as being broadly similar in term of team Rankings, ChiPS' and MARS' Ratings remain similar too, as shown by the following chart.

When we add the perspective of Massey, Colley and ODM we find generally increased alignment with the views of ChiPS and MARS except as those opinions relate to Carlton, which Colley Ranks more lowly than the other Systems; and Gold Coast and the Western Bulldogs, both of which Colley Ranks more highly.

Sometimes I think that, were it not for Colley, there'd be little point in talking about the remainder of MatterOfStats' Team Rating Systems. That said, ODM always offers an interesting view because it separately Rates every team in terms of its Offensive and Defensive capabilities.

Perhaps the most notable feature of ODM Component Rankings in recent weeks has been its downward Ranking of the Pies' Offensive capabilities on the back of sub-par performances against Carlton, Hawthorn, the Western Bulldogs and Melbourne.

Finally, turning to the simple accuracy of the various Rating Systems we find that, relative to MARS:

  • ChiPS still leads by 3
  • Massey still trails by 7
  • ODM still trails by 10, while its components, ODM Defence trails by 10, and ODM Offence trails by 12
  • Colley trails by 13

MARS, clearly, continues to be a robust stand-alone predictor, and ChiPS is increasing looking like a credible alternative, at least in terms of picking winners if not margins.