2014 - Team Ratings After Round 9

ChiPS altered the ranking of eleven teams this week - two of them without even needing to take the field. Only one team though moved by more than a single spot, Collingwood, who fell two spots to sixth after losing to the Crows by 19 points, a result that cost the Pies 2.3 Rating Points (RPs).

Other teams from the Top 8 to move places were Fremantle (now 4th) and Sydney (now 5th) who each rose a single spot as the Pies slipped to nestle in below them, and Adelaide and Richmond, who traded 8th and 9th spots between them.

I've changed the content of the ChiPS versus MARS comparison table this week to include a direct comparison of this week's to last week's ChiPS Ratings and Rankings, and to include information about ChiPS' and MARS' Rating and Ranking changes across the last five rounds.

The column headed "Chg v R8" records ChiPS' changes in team Rankings from Round 8 to Round 9, and the first of the columns headed "R5 to R9" records the net change in ChiPS Ratings for each team across these five rounds. The first "Chg v R5" column records what that net change in Ratings has meant in terms of changes in team Rankings.

So, for example, we can see that Sydney has been the greatest RP acquirer on ChiPS over the last five rounds having snatched over 12 RPs from their opponents in this period. The Gold Coast have been the next-most acquisitive, grabbing almost 9 RPs.  Essendon and the Brisbane Lions have been the largest RP donors in this same period, both teams distributing about 8 RPs to their respective opponents.

Sydney's RP haul allowed it to climb five places as a result, more places than any other team during this period. Port Adelaide, Gold Coast and Melbourne were the only other teams to climb multiple positions, each climbing two rungs between the ends of Rounds 5 and 9. Four teams fell multiple positions, Essendon the worst of them, falling four places, the Kangaroos next-worst, falling three, and the Dogs and the Lions the remaining teams, each falling two places.

The columns headed "R5 to R9" and "Chg v R5" in the MARS section of the table reveal that the direction and broad magnitude of the changes in team Ratings and Rankings as assessed by MARS have been similar to those assessed by ChiPS.

Charting ChiPS' and MARS' team Ratings serves only to highlight the continued similarity of their opinions.

Relative to the other Rating Systems, Colley's affection for the Gold Coast and disaffection with Richmond and, to a lesser extent, with Hawthorn, are the only features of the Rating System Team-by-Team Ranking chart worth highlighting this week.

The last few weeks' results have led the ODM System to adjust most significantly the overall Rankings of Essendon (downwards) and Sydney (upwards), and to continue its:

  • upward Ranking of the offensive capabilities of the Crows, Dons (sic) and Suns
  • downward Ranking of the offensive capabilities of the Blues, Pies, Giants, Eagles and Dogs
  • upward Ranking of the defensive capabilities of the Crows, Blues, Hawks and Eagles
  • downward Ranking of the defensive capabilities of the Lions, Dons, Dockers, Cats, Tigers, Saints and Swans

The teams with the greatest discrepancy between their offensive and defensive Rankings according to ODM are now:

  • Teams with significantly more highly Ranked defence than offence : Collingwood, Kangaroos, Melbourne and West Coast
  • Teams with significantly more highly Ranked offence than defence : GWS, Hawthorn and Port Adelaide

Finally, looking at the simple predictive accuracy of all Rating Systems relative to MARS we find that ChiPS remains 3 tips ahead of MARS, while Massey is 5 tips behind, ODM is 9 tips behind, and Colley is 11 tips behind. Predicting results using only ODM's defensive or its offensive team Rankings continues to do better than predicting using the overall ODM Rankings derived by combining these components. Using either component Ranking has produced tips that have been correct 7 times less often than using MARS.