2013 : Round 25 (Week 2 of the Finals) - Wagers & Tips

With just the two games this weekend, and with short-priced home team favourites in both, wagering is necessarily a little more subdued. 

There's nothing from the Head-to-Head Fund since neither the Cats nor the Swans are priced at $1.50 or more, but there is a wager from the Line Fund on the Swans giving 20.5 points start. That wager is about as tentative a bet as you could imagine, since the Line Fund algorithm, which informs the Line Fund's wagers, rates the Swans as 52.7% chances of collecting in the line market. On that basis our wager has an 0.07% positive expectation.

The Margin Fund, meantime, has shown its usual enthusiasm for home team favourites, opting for SuperMargin wagers in both contests, three of which are priced at the standard minimum of $7, and the fourth of which, on the Cats to prevail by 50 to 59 points, in priced at $9.

Collectively those wagers once again imperil little and offer only a modest upside.

Investors' maximum gain for the round is just over 1c and their maximum loss is about 0.7c. A 20-point win by the Swans, whislt not especially unprofitable, would nonetheless be frustrating.


There are no genuine maverick Tipsters or Predictors amongst the MAFL multitude this week, all 17 still-active Head-to-Head Tipsters opting for the favourites in both games, all 17 Margin Predictors doing likewise, and all seven Head-to-Head Probability Predictors rating the favourites' chances as 62% or higher.

The nearest any of those Tipsters or Predictors has gone to making a remotely contrarian prediction is Combo_NN2, which has tipped a Cats win by over 9-and-a-half goals, and a Swans win by 6-and-a-half goals.

For the Sydney v Carlton game a handful of Margin Predictors are tipping a Swans win by 2 goals or less, so there is at least some hope for a close contest this weekend if their predictions are closer to the mark.

The Line Fund algorithm rates both favourites as the more-likely victors on line betting too, but only by a very narrow margin.