2013 : Round 15 - Results

Port Adelaide really are the team that just keeps on giving this season.

In conceding a last-minute goal to the Dons on Sunday evening, thereby allowing the Dons to simultaneously cover the 25.5 point spread and extend their margin of victory into the 30 to 39 point range, Port Adelaide transformed a looming loss of just over 3c into a gain of about 3c for the Recommended Portfolio. That collect was enough to tip the Portfolio into profit for the round taken as a whole - a feat that the Fund has now achieved in three consecutive weeks - and leaves it a tantalising 2.4c short of break-even.

As usual, as many a punter has asserted through the ages, it could have been even better. Deep into time-on in the final term of the Crows v Eagles game, scores were level and Investors' wager on the draw at $41 looked a very good thing indeed. That was until a late goal by the Eagles ruined that outcome as well as the other SuperMargin wager they had on the Crows to win by 1 to 9 points. Still, I'm not complaining.


Four favourites were toppled during the round, which depressed the scores for most of the Head-to-Head Tipsters with the notable exceptions being the ProPred family whose superior foresightedness snagged two of those upsets. Their scores of 7 from 9 for the round vaulted the three into outright equal-second position, just one tip behind Combo_NN2.

Amongst the Margin Predictors, the pair of RSMP Predictors extended their leads over Bookie_LPSO and Bookie_3 while almost preserving their lead over Combo_7. RSMP_Weighted now enjoys a lead of just under 40 points from RSMP_Simple and of just over 100 points from the next-nearest Predictor, Bookie_LPSO.

Bookie_LPSO is faring a little better as a Probability Predictor and remains atop the Head-to-Head Probability Predictors. It stayed top by producing the round's best probability score, though with all Predictors recording broadly similar and comfortably positive scores this week there was little movement on the ladder overall.

The Line Fund algorithm had a relatively poor round in terms of probability assessments, though Investors were largely insulated from this by the Fund's practice of level-staking and by the fact that one of its two largest errors in estimation was in relation to a game on which it did not wager (the Dees v Swans game).


Combo_NN1 had an extraordinary week on SuperMargin markets, selecting the correct bucket in three games and missing by a single bucket in three more. That still hasn't been enough to tip it into profitability for the season, but it has moved it a little nearer.

Six Predictors are now in profit for the season, each of them having selected the correct bucket in at least 16 games. Only two other Predictors have been as accurate but not been profitable: HU7, which is exactly at break-even, and Combo_NN2, which is down by just 0.4%.

ProPred_3, which selected the correct bucket in two of this week's games, leads all-Predictors in terms of accuracy having now chosen the correct bucket in 23 of the season's 126 games.