2013 : Round 11 - Wagers & Tips

Round 11: 12 teams, 6 games, 4 days, 2 home team rank underdogs, 1 bet.

This week sees the first of three truncated rounds during which only two-thirds of the competition takes part. That alone would have been enough to significantly dampen Fund activity levels, but when coupled with generally unattractive home team pricing by the TAB Bookmaker and five home team underdogs, it's led to a complete boycott on the parts of the Line and Margin Funds. Our sole wager is on the Dees on Monday at $17.

A Ready Reckoner would be overkill this week, full of enough flatlines to furrow the brow of a cardiologist. All Investors need to know is that a Dees' loss would lop 0.4c off the price of the Recommended Portfolio while a win would add 6c. There's no harm in dreaming ...


The Head-to-Head Tipsters, Home Sweet Home aside, are unanimous in their support for the favourites this week, bar in the first game where there's 9-4 support for the narrow underdog Blues. 

It's a similar story amongst the Margin Predictors, where it's only a question of how much for the last five games of the round. The Dons v Blues clash sees five Predictors tipping a nail-biting win for the Dons, four tipping a similarly tiny Blues win, and the remaining seven foreseeing a slightly more comfortable win for the away team. Only one Predictor is tipping a win for either team by more than 3 goals, and just one more by more than 2 goals.

ProPred_3 has the round's most different margin predictions while Combo_NN1's margins are most like the consensus view.

The pattern of prognostications across the games amongst the Head-to-Head Probability Predictors is the same as for the other two classes of Tipsters and Predictors though the range of probability assessments is surprisingly broad. In four of the games, the difference between the high and low assessments of the home team's chances is over 20 percentage points.

ProPred's assessments are most different from the all-Predictor average, being on average almost 11% points different, while WinPred's assessments are the least different and just 4.4% points different.

The Line Fund algorithm's assessment of the Dons' chances was not high enough to warrant a wager at $1.90 - which is why Investors don't have a Line Fund bet in this game - but as I write this the Dons have drifted to $1.95 on the line market. That price makes them a profitable proposition if the Line Fund algorithm's probability assessment is correct. I'll be honest, it was tempting to have a line bet on the Dons, especially given the general lack of wagering activity this week. But we're disciplined bettors, aren't we?