With two rank, home team outsiders snatching victory in the final term, the competition enjoyed a much-needed surprisal injection this week.
Fortunately, the Head-to-Head and Line Funds were wise to the opportunity in the first of these upsets, and their combined confidence added 9.5c to the Recommended Portfolio. Two more wagering collects from the Margin Fund in other games added cream to Investors' strawberries, with the Saints inability to kick just one more goal in their 35-point win over the Dees producing the weekend's only major disappointment.
All up the Recommended Fund rose by just over 7c, leaving it now down by 10.5c on the season. With the Head-to-Head Fund's large win on Port Adelaide this week it has joined the Margin Fund in a state of net profitability, a status not even close to being shared by the Line Fund, which now finds itself down by 27c on the season. Who decided to increase its weighting this year?
TIPSTERS AND PREDICTORS
Even with the two major upsets, most MAFL Tipsters and Predictors recorded acceptable performances for the week.
A majority of the Head-to-Head Tipsters correctly predicted the result of the four games in which the favourite emerged victorious, and a few of the less-performed Tipsters even managed to tip the Port upset. That left the upper portion of the MAFL Leaderboard for these Tipsters unchanged.
Also unchanged was the ordering at the top of the Margin Predictors' section of the Leaderboard, which still sees RSMP_Weighted leading RSMP_Simple by about 40 points. Bookie_3 remains in third, though it dropped almost 18 points further behind RSMP_Weighted on the basis of the weekend's margins. RSMP_Weighted and RSMP_Simple also still have line betting statistics that are considerably better than chance.
The Head-to-Head Probability Predictors all suffered because of the two upset victories, especially the Risk-Equalising variant of the TAB Bookmaker's prices, which now heads the Overround-Equalising variant by the smallest of margins. Only WinPred emerged from the weekend with a net positive probability score, though it remains fifth on the ladder and still some distance behind ProPred and the Bookmaker-derived Probability Predictors.
The Line Fund algorithm recorded a very slightly negative probability score for the round.
None of the Margin Predictors did better than Bookie_9 and Combo_NN2 in predicting the correct bucket on SuperMargin wagering in just one of the week's six contests. A few of the Predictors were in error by just a single bucket in one-half of the contests, however.
Nine of the Predictors now have a positive ROI from SuperMargin wagering for the season to date, though only seven are in that position for those games in which they've predicted a home team victory. Two of those Predictors, I'm pleased to say, are the brains behind the Margin Fund: Bookie_9 and Combo_NN2.