2013 : Round 12 - Wagers & Tips

After last week's unaccustomed and uninspiring inactivity, this week sees a return to more usual levels of wagering. Investors have a financial stake in each of the half-dozen contests.

Only the Head-to-Head Fund has maintained the same level of activity this week as last, its sole wager on the Blues at $4 facing the Hawks on Friday night. Meantime the Line Fund, which is now betting 5% at a time, the largest bet size it will be permitted to employ all season, has found four home teams that it likes, three of them giving and one of them receiving start. The Margin Fund has also found four games on which to wager, three of them those same games in which the Line Fund fancies the team giving start. It, however, has had its bet size reduced commencing this week since, historically, its best results for the season are likely to be behind it.

It's interesting to note in passing that the Pies, though notionally at home this week in taking on the Dogs at Docklands, have significantly less experience at this venue over the past 12 months than do their opponents.

The increase in the size of the Line Fund's wagers, coupled with the double-teaming of Margin Fund wagers in three of the contests, has made for a round of matches mostly characterised by the potential for substantial gains and substantial losses. 

The round commences with a couple of games with more upside than downside, and in the context of the round not a great deal of either, before confronting Investors with four games, back-to-back, in which the minimum potential gain and loss is 3%. Foremost amongst the quartet of contests is the Dons vs Suns matchup where a home team win by 50 to 59 points would land all three wagers and lift the Recommended Portfolio by about 4c.

There's marginally more upside in a favourable result for GWS on the line market as a result of some good fortune in the timing of my wager, which allowed me to secure a price of $2 rather than the more normal $1.90, which is the price at which the market opened and to which it returned later in the day.

A dream round this week would drive the Recommended Portfolio back into profitability.


The average Head-to-Head Tipster has at least one tip different from the all-Tipster majority this week. That majority lies with the six favourites, though for the Tigers v Crows and Dons v Suns games the plurality of votes is only three.

MAFL's Margin Predictors are far less divided. In fact, they're unanimously tipping wins by the six favourites. For three of the contests - the first two of the round plus the Suns v Port game - the average predicted margin is less than 4 goals, however, so there is some hope of an upset or two. That's not been the pattern of results for this season so far though, has it?

ProPred_7 is, this week, the Predictor most different from the all-Predictor average, with an average absolute difference of almost 9 points per game, while H2H_Adjusted_7 is the Predictor least different, with an average absolute difference of less than 2 points per game.

Turning to the Head-to-Head Probability Predictors we also find strong support for the favourites. WinPred and ProPred are the Predictors notably most different, each differing by more than 5% from the all-Predictor average in at least three of the clashes with the result that they are the Predictors most different from the all-Predictor average. The Predictor based on an LPSO interpretation of the TAB Bookmaker head-to-head prices is the one most similar to the all-Predictor average this week.

Lastly, we look at the Line Fund algorithm's estimates and again find it relatively confident about its opinions in a number of games, which it demonstrates by assessing its favoured team as having about a 60% or higher chance of success on line betting. Most emphatic are its views on the Hawks, which it rates 71% chances, and its views on the Crows, which it rates 74% chances.