2013 : Round 7 - Wagers & Tips

There's apparently not a whole lot to like about the prices for home teams this weekend, at least not if you rate the prowess of the MAFL Funds.

The Head-to-Head Fund is the weeks' most active, finding three home teams whose prices it fancies, but only enough to prise, at most, 0.6% of the Fund from its suddenly-discerning hands. Our Margin Fund is the next most invested, with Combo_NN2 and Bookie_9 combining to produce twin wagers on the Cats and the Hawks each required to win by between 10 and 19 points to justify the Fund's attention. Most circumspect this week is the Line Fund, bowed perhaps by the realisation of its own importance, which has made just a single tentative wager this week on Port giving the Tigers 6.5 points start.

So it's three home team favourites and three underdogs that the Head-to-Head Fund has ignored, three different home team favourites and five underdogs that the Line Fund has ignored, and two home team favourites and five underdogs that the Margin Fund has passed on.

That makes for a fairly large eggs-to-basket ratio for the week.

Almost all of the upside for Investors resides in four contests. The largest increment would come from a Cats or a Hawks win by 10 to 19 points, either of which would add 1.6c to the value of the Recommended Portfolio. The two other significant increases would stem from a Port win by 7 points or more, which would be worth 1.4c, or a GWS win by any margin at all, which would be worth 1c.

Downside is concentrated mostly in a single game, with a Port loss, draw or victory by only 6 points or fewer threatening to lop 1.5c off the Recommended Portfolio's price.


Some of the reticence to get enthusiastic about home teams' chances is reflected in the thoughts of the Head-to-Head Tipsters. Geelong and Melbourne are home team favourites with only minority support amongst these Tipsters, and Hawthorn are home team favourites with only barely majority support. The Fremantle v Collingwood and Melbourne v Gold Coast clashes also see significant support for the underdog teams amongst these Tipsters.

Looking next at the Margin Predictors we find two games where there's not unanimous support for the favourites: the Port Adelaide v Richmond game, where Combo_NN1 and Combo_NN2 favour the Tigers, and the Melbourne v Gold Coast game, where many Predictors favour the underdog Suns if only by small margins.

The Head-to-Head Probability Predictors are unanimous in the teams they assess as being better-than-50% chances, the exception being the Suns where ProPred and the H2H Predictors have adopted a contrarian stance in siding with the underdogs.

As reflected in the sparsity of wagers on Home teams by the Line Fund this week, the Line Fund algorithm rates all but two Away teams as favourites to prevail on line betting, the outliers being GWS, which it rates as only 51% chances and so not wager-worthy, and Port Adelaide, which it rates as 59% chances. Amongst the Away teams whose chances it particularly likes are the Swans, which it rates as 71% chances to finish within 2 goals of the Hawks.