2013 : Round 10 - Wagers & Tips

It took far longer than usual for the TAB Sportsbet Bookmaker to finalise the markets for a number of this week's mismatches yet, in the end, the Head-to-Head Fund decided to pass on everything that he offered - including the Dees at $17 - and the Line Fund sniffed value in just three markets. Only the Margin Fund provided Investors with a reason to be interested in a wider range of contests.

Combined, that leaves just two wager-free games : Geelong v Gold Coast and Melbourne v Hawthorn. To be honest, not having a dog in the fight for those games seems to me to be a wise decision.

In other games, the Head-to-Head Fund couldn't even be tempted by the Lions' blowing out from an opening price of $3.15 to their eventual price of $4.90 (presumably on the strength of the news than their captain, Jonathan Brown, would miss 2 rather than 1 week as a consequence of unsuccessfully challenging his striking charge).

This week's Ready Reckoner is then quite different from last week's:

The best-possible result would see the Roos win by between 27 and 39 points, which would add 2c to the value of the Recommended Portfolio. Other welcome results include an Adelaide win by between 1 and 9 points, a Lions win, draw or loss by 28 points or fewer, or a Carlton win by 81 points or more, all of which would add at least 1c to the value of the Recommended Portfolio.

Unhappiness would ensue most of all should Carlton win by less than 30 points, by 40 to 49 points, or by 60 to 80 points, should the Roos win by 19 points or fewer, or should the Lions lose by 29 points or more. Any of those outcomes would knock at least 1.5c off the price of the Recommended Portfolio.

Overall, in the best of all possible worlds, Investors would see about 8c restored to the value of the Recommended Portfolio this week and, in the worst of all possible worlds, would see just over 6c wiped of the Portfolio's value.


Only four of this week's contests have elicited unanimous predictions amongst the Head-to-Head Tipsters. In four more there's 9 to 4 support - three times for the favourite and once for the underdog - and in the remaining game there's 12 to 1 support for the favourite, with Home Sweet Home the lone dissenter.

Amongst the Margin Predictors there's unanimous support for the favourites in all but two contests. In the Dogs v Port game, Combo_7 is the outlier, siding with the underdog Dogs to win by a small margin. More dramatically, in the Crows v Dockers game, seven Predictors have predicted wins by the slightly less-fancied Dockers.

Clearly, the Brisbane Lions have somehow offended a few of the MAFL algorithms. Why else would we find such low assessments of their chances against the Pies by the Head-to-Head and ProPred algorithms? Even the Line Fund algorithm rates the Lions as just 32% chances with 28.5 points start.

That said, only one game is seen by the Line Fund algorithm as being especially close to call. That game is the Adelaide v Fremantle contest, which this algorithm rates as almost a 50:50 proposition. In every other contest, the algorithm's less-fancied team is rated as no better than 39% chances. In most cases, however, it's the away team that enjoys the Line Fund algorithm's favour, which is why Investors have only three wagers this week.