2013 : Round 2 - Wagers & Tips

This week Investors have a single Head-to-Head, three Line and ten SuperMargin wagers. The SuperMargin bets are arrayed as two bets - one based on Combo_NN2's opinion and the other on Bookie_9's - on five games. For the first time this week these two opinions differ sufficiently to have us selecting different buckets to wager on in the same game, so we'll have an opportunity to assess the efficacy of the Bookie_9-as-backup strategy that I've concocted for this season. 

The 14 wagers span all but the first and last games of the round, but almost half of them are on just two teams: Essendon and Port Adelaide. Favourable results in the games involving these two teams will each add around 1% to the Recommended Portfolio.

As you can see from the Ready Reckoner, "favourable results" has a fairly narrow definition in both cases. For the Dons it means a victory by between 40 and 49 points - no more, no less - and for Port it means a victory by between 50 and 59 points, though a win by between 30 and 39 points instead would be almost as lucrative thanks to the second SuperMargin wager based on Bookie_9's opinion.

A Collingwood win by between 10 and 19 points offers the next-highest return at around 0.8%, while a Dogs win by any margin or a Lions win on line betting with 6.5 points start each offer returns of around 0.7%. In the two other games in which we've a financial interest the upsides are much smaller at around 0.3%. 

The games with the largest potential downsides for Investors are the Dons v Dees, Port v Gians, and Lions v Crows matchups, each of which imperil about 1% of Total Funds.


Again this week let's look at the Predictions firstly on a game-by-game basis.

St Kilda v Richmond

All the Head-to-Head Tipsters except Home Sweet Home and all the Margin Predictors except Combo_NN1 are tipping a Tigers victory in this game. The Head-to-Head Probability Predictors feel similarly, rating the home-team Saints as only between about 20% and 30% chances.

St Kilda is narrowly favoured by the Line Fund algorithm to prevail on line betting enjoying as they do an 18.5 point handicap.

Sydney v Gold Coast

It's Sydney all the way in this game according to all the Tipsters and Predictors, by margins ranging between about 4 and 10 goals if the Margin Predictors are to be believed. ProPred is the most confident of the Probability Predictors, rating Sydney as 97% chances, some 12% points higher than the assessment of the more conservative Probability Predictors in this game.

The Line Fund algorithm thinks that 39.5 points start is too much for the Swans to be giving, however, and rates them as only 43% chances to succeed in line betting.

Western Bulldogs v Fremantle

Unusually, majority Head-to-Head Tipster support is behind the underdog Dogs in this game, with only BKB, ProPred and WinPred tipping Fremantle to win. In contrast, all of the Margin Predictors fancy Freo's chances and foresee victory margins ranging from 2 to 32 points with an average of around 11 points. 

The Probability Predictors' assessment of the Dogs' chances range from 28% to 44%, this latter assessment coming from the Head-to-Head algorithm and being sufficient to induce a wager from the Head-to-Head Fund given the Dogs' $3.25 starting price.

The Line Fund algorithm rates the Dogs as mild favourites to win on line betting with their 19.5 start.

Brisbane Lions v Adelaide

In this game, as in the Saints v Tigers clash, it's Home Sweet Home and Combo_NN1 that are the only dissenters amongst their peers. That said, the average predicted victory margin amongst the Margin Predictors is just 7 points, and the probability assessments of the Lions' chances by the Probability Predictors span the range from 32% to 44%, so the Lions are certainly not considered to be without hope.

What's more, with 6.5 points start on line betting the Lions are rated 55% favourites by the Line Fund algorithm.

Essendon v Melbourne

The Dons enjoy unanimous support in this game, and the Margin Predictors believe that they'll prevail by between 21 and 46 points. Amongst the Probability Predictors it's ProPred that's the low bidder in this game, assessing the Dons as "only" 79% chances, while the LPSO version of the Bookmaker's probability assessment is the high bid at 90%.

Even giving 39.5 points start the Dons are rated as 56% favourites on line betting by the Line Fund algorithm. 

Port Adelaide v GWS

Port enjoys even greater levels of support amongst the Tipsters and Predictors than do the Dons and the Swans. They are the unanimous pick of the Head-to-Head Tipsters, on average 7-goal favourites according to the Margin Predictors (the highest average across all nine contests in the current round), and 83% to 96% favourites according to the Head-to-Head Probability Predictors. They're also 63% chances to win on line betting giving 32.5 points start according to the Line Fund algorithm.

Geelong v Kangaroos

Geelong are also clear favourites in their clash with the Roos, though the enthusiasm amongst the Tipsters and Predictors is generally more muted. At the tepid end of support, predicted victory margins for the Cats dip as low as 1 point and WinPred rates them as just 52% chances, while at the warmer end margin predictions peak at 24 points and the LPSO version of the Bookmaker probability assessment tops out at 69%.

The Line Fund algorithm assesses the Cats as narrow favourites on line betting giving 17.5 points start.

Collingwood v Carlton

The Pies are unanimous favourites amongst the Head-to-Head Tipsters and are also tipped to win by all of the Margin Predictors except Combo_NN1, which tips the Blues to win by just 2 points. The average predicted Pies victory margin across all Margin Predictors is just over 11 points.

Amongst the Probability Predictors, WinPred rates the Pies' chances highest at 73% while ProPred rates them lowest at 60%.

On line betting, the Line Fund has the Pies as narrow underdogs giving 16.5 points start.

West Coast v Hawthorn

This is the only game of Round 2 in which there are significant levels of disagreement amongst all three classes of Tipsters and Predictors.

The Head-to-Head Tipsters are split 9-4 in favour of Hawthorn, the Margin Predictors have it 10-6 to the Eagles with an average victory margin of just under 2 points, while the Probability Predictors' assessments of the Eagles' chances range from a low of 47% from the Head-to-Head algorithm to a high of 63% from WinPred. With so much uncertainty about which way this game will go, it's probably best we don't have a wager on the contest.

The Line Fund algorithm is somewhat more resolute in its opinion, rating the Eagles as just 41% chances in what should be, according to the TAB Bookmaker, a 50:50 proposition, but we don't - as you know - wager on Away teams.


Once again this week it's Home Sweet Home that's displaying the highest level of contrarian behaviour amongst the Head-to-Head Tipsters, there being about a one-third chance that its tip differs from that of a randomly-selected Tipster in a randomly-selected game.

Amongst the Margin Predictors, Combo_NN1 is the differentiated, its predicted margins differing in absolute terms from the all-Predictor average by, on average, 8.7 points per game. Combo_7 is the least different with an average absolute difference of just 2.9 points per game.

WinPred exhibits the highest levels of deviation from the norm amongst the Probability Predictors, with its probability assessments differing from the all-Predictor average in absolute percentage point terms by 5.8% per game.