It's wrong, I know, to talk of "being proud" of some statistical algorithms that you've brought into existence, but that's the best description I can come up with to encapsulate what I felt as I ran the various MAFL Fund algorithms today, reviewed their outputs and made wagers accordingly.
Each algorithm has played its part: the Head-to-Head Fund in picking two teams on which to lavish its attention in large dollops, the Line Fund in finding four more teams in which to entrust 20% of its entitlement, and the Margin Fund in audaciously selecting a draw and two more outlandish outcomes as a means of, hopefully, bridging the gap to profitability. Right now I can imagine little worse than being, as we are, over 20% "underwater" (as the investment community deigns to describe it) while simultaneously being bereft of potentially ameliorating wagers.
Instead, we find ourselves with a number of wagers - one in particular - that could materially change the lasting memories that we'll have of season 2012.
We Investors are, indeed, rooting for the non-outcome that is the draw in Friday night's Tigers v Dons clash. At $41, such a result would add 17c to Overall Portfolios and would make a sizeable dent in the unprofitability that currently characterises Season 2012. Barring that, victories of unexpected magnitude for the Saints or the Cats would also provide welcome solace.
Absent the miracle of a Richmond v Essendon draw, a Geelong win by 10-19 points paired with St Kilda wins by 30-39 points and a West Coast win by 4 points or more would be almost as good, while a Port loss by 4 points or fewer and a Roos win by 20-29 points could add icing to any already attractive cake - or something; feel free to choose your own metaphors.
If the wagering gods are obscenely kind to Investors this week, we stand to gain as much as 38c; if they're truer to form and more punitive, we stand to lose as much as 16c. We almost certainly won't, as the vernacular goes, "die wondering".
The Head-to-Head Tipsters have, suddenly, found reasons to disagree, their unanimity in evidence only in the Cats v Dogs contest where they've fallen uniformly behind the Cats.
In six more contests, however, no more than three Tipsters are dissenters, the majority opting for the favourites in the shape of the Tigers, Saints, Lions, Eagles, Blues and Roos. The two remaining contests see the underdog Swans favoured 8-5 over the Hawks, and the underdog Dees favoured 8-5 over the Crows.
The Margin Predictors are also displaying an uncharacteristically high level of disagreement, though they're still all agreed on the likely winning prospects of St Kilda, Carlton, Geelong, the Roos, and Adelaide.
In the four remaining contests, at least one Predictor has proferred a different victor. Combo_NN_2 likes the Dons' and Pies' chances, while Combo_NN_1 fancies Port Adelaide, Sydney and (also) Collingwood. Bookie_9 also prefers the Swans' to the Hawks' chances though by the smallest of margins.
Draws seem most probable in the Tigers v Dons, Port v Lions, Swans v Hawks, and Eagles v Pies matchups (though the Win duo also think that the Roos v Dockers game will be very close).
The non-TAB Head-to-Head Probability Predictors rate the chances of the Tigers, Saints and Eagles more highly than does the TAB, and rate the chances of Port, Sydney, Geelong and Melbourne less highly.
In addition, the Roos' chances are rated more highly by H2H and ProPred (and less highly by WinPred), while those of the Suns are rated less highly by H2H and WinPred (and more highly by ProPred). WinPred, in particular, this week seems to have locked into a mode of assessing team chances differently to the TAB and, in many cases, to the other Head-to-Head Probability Predictors too.
The Line Fund algorithm rates the line betting chances of Richmond, Hawthorn, Fremantle and Adelaide as better than 60%, and those of St Kilda, Port Adelaide and West Coast as better than 55%.