2012 Round 21 - Wagers & Tips : Heliocentric Wagering

This week apparently - and relatively speaking - the TAB Bookmaker has priced most of the markets correctly. At least that's the collective view of the Head-to-Head, Line and Margin Funds which, between them, have ventured just ten wagers, representing only about one-eighth of Investors' original funds, the smallest single-round outlay since Round 13 and only the third-largest this season since all three Funds have been active. Now really wasn't the time I was looking for introspection ...

Despite the relative inactivity of the Funds, three highly unlikely results, together, could erase Investors' current losses: a Geelong win by 20 to 29 points (worth over 5c), a Collingwood win by 30 to 39 points (also worth over 5c), and a Hawthorn win by 30 to 39 points (worth over 12c). The first two of those results are, frankly, unlikely, but the third might well herald the apocalypse.

The other games on which we've wagers offer maximum returns of around 2 to 3c, except for the Lions v Adelaide game where even an unexpected Lions victory would yield only a 0.5c return. Potential losses in those games where we've a bet range from 0.1c to just 3c, so we've considerably more upside than downside yet again this weekend. The problem, of course, is that the downside is far more likely to eventuate than the upside.

Head-to-Head Tipsters are in broad agreement in six of the weeks' contests, with unanimity prevailing in one contest and Home Sweet Home the lone dissenter in four more. In the sixth, the Dons v Blues clash, Consult The Ladder has joined Home Sweet Home in tipping against the favourites.

All three remaining contests see the Tipsters split 7-6 with the underdogs the narrow majority pick in each.

The Margin Predictors are, as usual, of virtually one mind, with Combo_NN_1 breaking ranks in only one game, tipping Essendon to spring the upset over Carlton by a solitary goal. Despite this near unanimity, again we have reasonable hopes for close contests in a number of games; for five of them - Cats v Saints, Dons v Blues, GWS v Melbourne, Dockers v Tigers, and Pies v Roos - at least one of the Predictors foresees a single digit victory margin.

In eight of the nine contests the non-TAB Head-to-Head Probability Predictors broadly assess one team's chances more highly than does the TAB. Geelong, Collingwood, Port Adelaide, Melbourne, Richmond and Adelaide are unanimously felt by the non-TAB Predictors to be more likely to win than is the opinion of the TAB, while Essendon and the Dogs are deemed more likely by two of the three non-TAB Predictors. 

In the ninth contest, the Hawks v Suns game, all Predictors are in broad agreement about the existence and magnitude of the improbability of a Suns victory.

The Line Fund algorithm, meantime, rates GWS as the team most likely to win on line betting, and also rates the Dons, Cats, Pies and Suns as 55% or better prospects.