2012 MARS, Colley, Massey and ODM Ratings After Round 9

MARS is a Pies fan again. 

Collingwood's victory over the Crows, coupled with the Hawks' capitulation to the Tigers, was enough to convince MARS that the Pies are once again the best team in the competition.

The competition ladder (and, as we'll see, a welter of alternative team Rating Sytems) still says otherwise, as the Eagles, Dons and, yes, the Crows themselves, occupy higher rungs.

Collingwood were one of four teams to rise on MARS Rankings, foremost amongst them St Kilda who climbed two spots to 6th. Only three teams fell, Sydney most of all, dropping three spots to 8th on the other end of a loss to the Saints.

A record ten teams now have MARS Ratings that exceed 1,000, and the top nine teams on MARS Ratings are also the top nine on the competition ladder, albeit in a very different order. The bottom nine teams on MARS Ratings are also, therefore, the bottom nine on the competition ladder too, though here the relative rankings are far more similar between the two.

Only seven teams have been net acquirers of Ratings Points (RPs) over the past five rounds, five of them the teams occupying competition ladder positions 1 through 5. The two other teams have been Richmond, now 12th on the ladder, and the Dogs, now 13th, each with some aspirations for a spot in the top 8, though the Tigers surely moreso than the Dogs.

Amongst the teams that have surrendered significant RPs, Carlton stands out having shed 6.4 RPs yet sitting 5th on MARS Ratings and 6th on the ladder. The Blues this year, so unpredictable has they been, that they've essentially provided the competition with a 19th team.

Other teams to shed large numbers of RPs have been the Dees, Suns, Lions, Freo and the Roos, none of which at present have genuine claims on a September berth, excepting perhaps the Roos. 

Last week I added the Offense-Defence Model (ODM) to MAFL's team Rating Systems and, in the MAFL spirit of valuing accretion over refinement, I've retained this Model for the week's team Rating activities.

Readers with a particular interest in the Ratings Systems might notice that a number of previous blogs on this topic have been updated over the past week. This was necessary to correct errors caused by the inclusion of GWS this season coupled with Excel's proclivity to forget that a pivot table's dimension was previously sorted alphabetically; this error affected Colley and Massey rankings. Generally speaking, earlier blogs were directionally correct if not factually pure (your Honour).

Anyway, here are the corrected team rankings for Rounds 4 to 9 based on Massey, Colley, ODM and MARS Ratings.

Colley, Massey, ODM or MARS Ratings shown in bold red are those that are three places or more lower than the all-Rater average ranking, whereas those shown in bold green are those that are three places or more higher. Similarly, the all-Tipster average rankings are shown in bold red where they are three places or more lower than the ladder position for the corresponding team, and in bold green where they are three places or more higher.

Teams that appear difficult to rank are: 

  • Adelaide, ranked 4th by Colley (and 3rd on the ladder), but 7th to 9th by all other Raters
  • Collingwood, ranked 8th by Massey and ODM, 1st by MARS, and 4th on the ladder
  • Fremantle, ranked 8th by Colley and 12th or 13th by the other Raters, and 10th on the ladder
  • Hawthorn, ranked 6th by Colley, and 2nd or 3rd on Massey, ODM and MARS Ratings, and 2nd on the ladder
  • Richmond, ranked 6th or 10th by the Ratings Systems and 12th on the ladder
  • St Kilda, ranked 6th by MARS, 9th or 11th by the other Raters, and 10th on the ladder
  • West Coast, ranked 1st by Colley, Massey and ODM, positioned 1st on the ladder, but ranked only 4th by MARS

Collingwood, it's interesting to note, despite winning this week fell on Massey and ODM rankings. One of the attractive features of the Offence-Defence Model is that we can decompose its overall ranking into Offensive and Defensive components and determine which is the cause of such re-ranking. 

We can see that the Pies' decline on ODM Rankings is due solely to its sharp decline on assessed Defensive performances. This week's result against the Crows, which involved the Pies conceding just 49 points, was enough to drop the Pies three spots on defensive ranking. So poorly rated, it seems, was the Crows' offensive effort against the Pies, that along with the assessments of the offensive performances of other teams against which the Pies have done well earlier in the season (for example, the 115 points they scored against the Hawks), the Pies' defensive standing needed downgrading.

The Pies' 75 points against the Crows was, however, rated highly, resulting in a significant upgrading of the Pies' offensive credentials, leaping them 6 places into 3rd. The net result of the defensive decline and the offensive climb was to drop the Pies, in aggregate, by 1 spot.

Other teams whose offensive abilities were substantially re-rated by ODM this week were the Dons, who dropped 3 places on offensive ranking in mustering only 119 points against GWS; the Hawks, who dropped 7 places on offensive ranking in managing just 75 points playing the Tigers; West Coast, who rose 6 places in racking up only 86 points against Freo; and the Dogs, who fell 4 places in recording only 75 points against the Cats.

Teams other than the Pies whose defensive ranking changed significantly were Adelaide, who fell 5 places thanks to conceding 75 points to the Pies; Richmond, who climbed 3 spots in conceding only 75 to the Hawks; and St Kilda, who also climbed 3 spots in conceding 83 points to the Swans.

Very clearly, a point scored against or conceded to one team is not the same as the same point scored against or conceded to another team in the eyes of the Offense-Defense Model.