Investors have a little more at stake in this Round than they did last week. To collect we'll need the Pies to beat the Hawks by 4 goals or more, which would be enough to land our lone line wager and boost the Portfolio price by just under 2c. Should the Pies fail to provide this outcome Portfolios will instead fall by just over 2c.
On Saturday, the Cats and the Eagles can do as they please - at least as far as the Funds are concerned.
Here's a remarkable and thoroughly useless piece of trivia for you: in their last five successive games the Cats have faced each of the five teams in the competition that have an avian mascot. In order they've played the Crows in Round 21, the Swans in Round 23 (after having the bye in Round 22), the Pies in Round 24, the Hawks in the Qualifying Final, and now the Eagles in the Semi. That's a veritable smorgasbord from a Cat's point of view (though the Pies did prove a trifle hard to digest last time around, so rapidly were they devoured). It'll be Pies on the menu against next week too should Geelong finish off the Hawks this week.
Unanimity abounds on tipping again this week, though there's a modicum of variability in the victory margins predicted by the Margin Predictors, much of it emanating from Combo_NN_2, which has enlimbed itself this week by tipping the Pies by over 7 goals and the Cats by over 9 goals. Only two of the Margin Predictors - Bookie_3 and Combo_NN_2 in both games - are projecting victory margins sufficient to cover the respective spreads facing the favourites.
The Head-to-Head Probability Predictors all have the Pies as about 65-75% chances and the Cats as 75-80% chances, while the Line Fund is relatively confident that the Pies will cover the spread and, on balance, thinks the Cats probably won't.
To finish, here's a summary of Week 3 of the Finals for the last 12 seasons.
During that period, 1st has met 3rd on three occasions in the Prelims, winning all three, and 2nd has met 4th on five occasions, winning all five.
The only losses that teams finishing 1st or 2nd on the ladder have suffered in the Prelims have been at the hands of one another. On the six occasions they've met, they've won 3 each.
Similarly, success for teams from 3rd or 4th on the ladder has only come when they've met one another. On the six occasions that this has occurred teams from 3rd have prevailed two-thirds of the time.