MAFL 2010 : Round 19 Results

The only conclusion that a reasonable person could reach is that the Recommended Portfolio, concerned about causing undue alarm, has determined the best way to prepare the TAB Sportsbet bookie for its eventual profitability is to do so very, very slowly.

After Friday night's game, in which the Dons capitulated to the Blues and failed to protect their 6.5 point start, the Recommended Portfolio was down by about 1.5%. Then, over the course of Saturday the Portfolio essentially marked time, nudging the deficit for the weekend up only a fraction, so that Investors went into Sunday still down, now by about 1.4%.

Sunday started perfectly, with the Saints and Melbourne both winning and covering their respective spreads, leaving it all to the Crows, whose desperation for a spot in the eight should surely have been enough, to finally drag the Portfolio into profit. But the Crows fell 8 points short, leaving the Recommended Portfolio up by just 1.2% on the weekend, and still 2.9% short of breakeven for the season.

MIN#002 also made a profit (3.4%), leaving his Portfolio priced at around 87c, and MIN#017 saw his Portfolio rise by 4.1% taking his Portfolio price above 50c for the first time since Round 15.

Here's the latest Dashboard:

Usually the best and worst MAFL Tipster performance span a range of two, maybe three, tips. This week they span five, from Silhouette's seven to Easily Impressed I's two.

Silhouette's performance was enough to drag it into equal 3rd on the MAFL Tipster table on 99 from 152 (65%). Ahead of it, in 1st, is Easily Impressed II on 101 (66%) and Short-Term Memory II in 2nd on 100 (66%).

BKB managed just 4 for the weekend, taking it to 95 (62.5%) for the season and relegating it to equal 3rd-last position. Over the past four rounds, favourite-tipping has yielded just 15.5 winners from 32 games, some four tips worse than what could have been achieved by someone merely consulting the most recent football ladder pre-round and then selecting the team higher on it.

On average, MAFL Tipsters scored 4.5 from 8 for the week.

Positions on the MARS Rating table were once again highly-tradeable commodities this weekend, as 10 of the 16 teams decided they didn't like the spot they already had. Five teams climbed and five fell. Collingwood and Carlton climbed most, ascending two places each, Collingwood into 1st and Carlton into 5th.

Essendon was the only team to fall multiple places. They dropped two spots into 13th.

There are now eight teams rated above 1,000 on MARS Ratings and these are the same eight teams that occupy the top eight spots on the competition ladder, though in a different order. The Top 3 teams on MARS Ratings, which were separated by only about 4 Rating Points before the round, are now separated by just 1.5 points.

All Margin Tippers saw their Mean Absolute Prediction Error rise this week, which left the top 3 places unchanged and occupied by BKB, LAMP and ELO. LAMP, however, suffered a smaller MAPE increase than BKB and so is now only 0.22 points per game behind.

The Median Absolute Prediction Errors for Chi, ELO and LAMP all rose by 0.5 points, while BKB's and HAMP's remained unchanged, which allowed HAMP to join ELO in equal 2nd on 27 points, behind LAMP on 26.

HELP this week recorded its third successive 5 from 8 performance and is now only one tip behind the result you could rightfully have expected had you tossed a coin each week to determine your line bets. HELP's Probability Scores are all still manifestly sub-naive.

In contrast, SSM continues to tantalise. It correctly tipped 6 of the 8 line results this week and now has a 56.6% season-long record. (Last week I think I might have quoted SSM's 2006-2010 record when I gave this statistic as 54.5%).

The Bookie Probability Model's lone wager for the round, which was 2.4% on the Swans, was also successful.