Julia +10.5 Seats

Julia Gillard's in an unusual position this weekend. She can take either side of a wager and probably be happy whether it wins or it loses.

You too can participate in the wager, but it requires that you weigh up the relative merits of an incumbent and a wannabe Prime Minister alongside those of two footy teams vying for positions in the 8.

Perplexed? Well here are two bets that TAB Sportsbet are currently offering:

So, one way or another, Julia's team wins the bet.

It's a mystery to me how anyone could sensibly go about framing a market for this wager, but I guess TAB Sportsbet are hoping that the smart money will know a lot about psephology or a lot about footy, but not a lot about both.

To provide you with just a little of the data you might want if you're considering a wager in this most exotic of markets:

  • Labor currently holds 83 of the 150 seats in the House of Representatives, the Libs hold 55, the Nats 10, and Independents hold 2. So, if nothing changes, a line of ALP +10.5 gives the ALP 93.5 somethings (adjusted seats? footy-equivalent seats?)
  • The Dogs have averaged just under 100 points per game this season and scored 101 points when they last played the Swans, at Manuka in Round 8. So, without adjusting for the fact that the Dogs are playing the Swans and are playing away, a line of Dogs -10.5 is likely to be something around 89.5 somethings

So, if the Dogs kick one goal more than their expectation or if Labor drop a goal's worth of marginals then the line bet favours the Dogs.

Me, I'll not be venturing a wager. I know that footy's hard to model; politics, I reckon, is nigh on impossible.