MAFL 2010 : Round 15 Results

For most Investors it was another weekend of nibbling away at the season's deficit.

Carlton's loss on Sunday evening meant that, for those with the Recommended Portfolio, the nibble was only a nip, but a couple of percent is undeniably better than an ocular prod with a dulled wooden implement.

Over the eight games of the round the Recommended Portfolio jumped about 2.1% leaving it down about 11.4% on the season, while the Portfolio of MIN#002 dropped 1.4% to leave it down 13.7%, and the MIN#017 Portfolio climbed 7.3% leaving it down 47% on the season.

Here's the latest Dashboard.

With this week's 3c gain Prudence is now virtually at break-even for the season. It might well achieve profitability next week, a status currently enjoyed only by the ELO and Heuristic-Based Funds.

With seven favourites winning this weekend, tipping proved to be relatively easy for most tipsters. Along with BKB, ELO, Silhouette and Chi also scored seven from eight, which in ELO's case was enough to catapult it to joint-leadership on 80.5 from 120 (72%). Three other tipsters are on the same total for the season: Easily Impressed I, Short-Term Memory II and Follow The Streak.

BKB's seven was enough to drag it into joint fifth, one tip back on 79.5, along with Easily Impressed II and Short-Term Memory I.

Six teams either climbed or fell a single position on MARS Ratings this week. The Western Bulldogs grabbed second position at Collingwood's expense, Freo snatched fifth from Carlton, and the Tigers finally surrender last position to the Eagles.

There's now a 14 Ratings-point differential between the Crows in ninth and the Lions in tenth, which seems about the right distance when you consider that the Crows have won six of their last nine games while the Lions have won just one of their last eleven. That must feel troubling like a developing habit to Lions fans.

Our Margin Tippers performed exceptionally well this weekend, all of them knocking at least one-third of a point off their season Mean APEs, and two of them knocking off three-quarters of a point or more, an extraordinary achievement when you consider that we're already 15 rounds into the season so you'd be expecting averages to respond to weekly performance spikes as the QEII responds to requests to turn to starboard. BKB continues to lead on the Mean APE metric, with LAMP second and ELO third.

LAMP reduced its Median APE by an astonishing one-and-a-half points this weekend to claim the lead outright from ELO. BKB, which reduced its Median APE by a point, lies third.

HELP had another poor round attempting to tip line winners, managing just 3 from 8, and its probability scores suffered markedly from its misplaced conviction.

(BTW The Super Smart Model performed very well this week on margin tipping, recording a Mean APE for the round of just 17.75 points per game, two points per game better than BKB. It managed only four from eight on line tipping however.)

After last week kicking a large proportion of all goals scored, winning teams this week recorded a remarkably low proportion of all scoring shots - a season low of just 53%. This was due to losing teams' ability to create ample scoring opportunities - they produced more scoring shots than their opponents in three games - but a chronic inability to convert them. Collectively, losing teams kicked 87.97 this weekend, which means they recorded only about 3 fewer scoring shots per game than did the victors collectively, but converted at a rate over 11 percentage points lower than did the games' winners.

Mark my words: poor kicking is going to see a team miss a finals spot or lose a final, and my money's on Collingwood or Hawthorn to be one of the teams involved.