This'll be brief.
When scanning the week's Ready Reckoner, never do I consider the "Best Possible" or "Worst Possible" results as lying within the feasible set of actual wagering outcomes. How wrong I've been.
Three games, three losses. Waiter, may I have the menu for Round 14 please?
Here's the week's MAFL Dashboard.
In deference to the dollars that sacrificed themselves in providing the data that now lies in the MAFL Wagering section of the Dashboard, I'll not be further commenting on it.
On tipping, Short-Term Memory now leads outright on 69.5 from 104 (67%), 1 tip ahead of Easily Impressed I and II, Short Term Memory II, Ride Your Luck and Follow the Streak, the latter tipster bagging the round's best performance, tipping 6 from 8.
Home Sweet Home recorded the round's worst tipping performance, managing just 3 from 8, to leave it with a season-long 53.4% record. As MAFL is currently constructed, it's never going to be a good year for wagering when Home teams aren't performing.
St Kilda's dominant second half over the Cats, which led to its 24-point victory, was enough to leap it over the Pies on MARS Ratings, despite Collingwood's 25-point win over the Swans. There were two other ratings moves further down the ladder, which saw the Crows and the Roos swap places with the Lions and the Dees respectively. The Crows now lie 9th on the MARS ladder, almost 8 Ratings points behind the Hawks.
All Margin Tippers except LAMP saw their Mean APEs fall over the round. BKB still leads, but LAMP's decline has allowed ELO to slip into second place. All three tipsters still have sub-30 MAPE's.
As we've seen a few times already this season, it's quite possible for a tipster's Mean and Median APEs to move in different directions over the course of the same round. We saw that again this round, which meant that LAMP took outright leadership on the Median APE metric, relegating ELO to second-place. BKB remains third.
HELP correctly predicted five of the round's eight line results and did a little to restore its overall probability scoring record to something a mite less embarrassing. I'll provide more details in future weeks if the upward trend continues.