As I've probably mentioned before, I dislike draws, not so much for their inconclusive nature, but more for the fact that they make the statistics messy. All the formulae in my spreadsheets that calculate returns need to cater for this once-or-twice-in-a-season phenomenon, and all the tipping statistics now sport an awkward .5 at the end.
At least the Dees v Pies draw provided me - and most other Investors - some recompense for the inconvenience. (For those of you who are unfamiliar with the head-to-head wagering rules, or who have might forgotten them, head-to-head wagers pay half-price on draws. We had the Dees at $5, so they paid out at $2.50 for us.)
This draw was sufficient to secure a very small nett profit for the round for Investors with the Recommended Portfolio, which grew by 0.38c and now stands at 89.29c. It wasn't, however, enough to drag MIN#002 or MIN#017 into the black: MIN#002's portfolio fell 1.8c to 85.80c, and MIN#017's portfolio fell 1.57c to 61.43c.
For all Investors then MAFL still has much work to do.
Here's the week's MAFL Dashboard.
You'll notice that Shadow lost money again this week for the Heuristic-Based Fund and, as a consequence, now cedes control of this Fund to Short-Term Memory I, which is the Fund with the best level-stake return on its home team selections across the season to date.
ELO-Line produced another profitable round this weekend, its third in succession, during which time is has made 11 profitable wagers and only 3 unprofitable wagers. This Fund is now up by 28.5% since the start of the season.
On tipping we now have three joint leaders: Short-Term Memory I, Easily Impressed I and Easily Impressed II. They're all on 64.5 (there's that ugly .5) from 96, which is about a 67% record. The next seven tipsters trail by no more than three tips.
ELO has tipped 26.5 from 40 across the last five rounds, which is the best performance of any of our tipsters during that period, and goes some way to explaining the profitability of the ELO-Based Fund in recent weeks.
The MARS Ratings of all but five teams changed on the basis of this weekend's results. West Coast recorded the largest drop, falling three places to 15th as a result of its thumping by the Tigers. The Dogs, Dees and Roos recorded the largest climbs, each jumping two spots on the back of their better-than-expected performances. Geelong remains 20 Ratings points clear at the top of the table.
All the Margin Tippers saw their Mean APE's head in the wrong direction this weekend. BKB still has the best Mean APE, with LAMP now in 2nd and ELO in 3rd on this measure, these two tipsters swapping places over the course of the round.
Using the Median APE metric ELO and LAMP are now joint leaders, with BKB in 3rd, a full 1 point behind.
HELP tipped just three correct line results from eight this week and generated probability scores that pushed it even further from naivety.
Even with the Pies shocking 9.22 effort the weekend still produced the most accurate kicking seen since Round 7. In aggregate, the eight matches produced just 188 goals and 155 behinds, which represents a 54.8% conversion rate.
Round 13 is the split round, so we'll only have five games to savour next weekend, and three the weekend after.