Once More With Feeling

(Update at 3:00pm Saturday : Brisbane's giving 6.5 start to the Blues, so no bet)

Stakes at Stake

September's here at last and a few hundred players and at least a few hundred more coaches and support staff will need to find other things to do with their weekends for a while.

Our Funds though remain firmly focussed on this season and they, generally, like what's on offer from TAB Sportsbet this weekend.

The keenest Fund is Chi-squared which has - apparently oblivious to recent performance - waded in with 3 wagers totalling about 28% of the Fund, the largest and riskiest being 10.4% on the Lions at $1.85 at home to the Blues.

Almost as keen is New Heritage, which has also found 3 teams that it's willing to support financially. Its largest wager is 12.9% on Adelaide at $1.10 at home facing the Dons and its riskiest is, like Chi-squared's, on the Lions and is sized at 6.9%.

For the second week running, Line Redux has found reason to depart from its usual 5%-per-game wagering strategy, this time dropping 15.9% on Geelong who are giving the Dogs 6.5 points start in their clash at the G. Its other wager is the more customary 5%, on the Saints giving the Pies 7.5 start in their clash, also at the G.

What Prudence lacks this week in terms of strength of conviction it makes up for in breadth. It has wagers, totalling only about 10.5% of the Fund, but spread over all 4 favourites. (In fact, 1 was an equal favourite as at Wednesday but is now an underdog on the TAB). These wagers include 6% on Adelaide and 1.3% on the Lions.

Hope, for only the third time this season and for the first time in 9 rounds, has chosen to abstain for the duration of the weekend. When you're up by over 54% on the season, I guess you get to choose your moments.

Ready Reckoner

Combined, these wagers produce this Ready Reckoner, which has a disturbing resemblance to last weekend's:

Far from retreating into hiding, taking a breather, taking stock, or getting their collective wind back - choose your own favourite cliche - the MAFL Funds have made 12 wagers this weekend, an average of 3 a game. For all Investors except MIN#017, this round represents the highest outlay per game for any round this season.

The line bet on the Cats makes their game the one of most interest to most Investors, but all matches hold some level of financial interest for all Investors exceot MIN#017.


Most of the MAFL tipsters retire at the end of the home and away season; only BKB, Chi and ELO continue to tip throughout the Finals.

These remaining tipsters are unanimous on all games this weekend. (Note that I've recorded BKB as tipping the Lions this weekend, consistent with the principle that it follows the CTL strategy when the TAB Sportsbet prices are the same for each team.)

Chi this week has 2 Games of the Round - Lions v Carlton and St Kilda v Collingwood - for both of which he is predicting a 5 point margin of victory.

ELO has just a single Game of the Round and it is the Lions v Carlton clash, though it foresees no close games this weekend and predicts a 22 point winning margin even for its Game of the Round.

Line Betting

On Line Betting:

  • Chi's on Essendon, Geelong, Carlton, Collingwood
  • ELO's on Adelaide, Geelong, Brisbane, St Kilda