Will Investors Be Having A Port Whine on Sunday?

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Stakes At Stake

Once again this weekend most Investors will find themselves disproportionately concerned about the outcome of a single contest.

Whilst it'll still be possible for a petite profit to be made should Port fail to topple the Hawks at Football Park, a truly memorable weekend will only be had if the upset eventuates.

To the details then.

New Heritage has 4 bets adding up to a little over one-third of the Fund, amongst them a 13.4% wager on the Dogs at a price not statistically significantly different from money back. They're at $1.02. The riskiest bet amongst the New Heritage clutch is 0.7% on Port Adelaide at $2.65. Every Fund has a wager on Port Adelaide this week, which is why Investors care so much about the outcome.

(Speaking of the use of 'clutch' as a collective noun for wagers, a visitor to the MAFL Online website this week arrived having searched on the phrase "clutching betting" using Google. Quite what he or she was truly looking for I'm as yet unable to fathom, but the length of the visit - 0 seconds - suggests he or she didn't find it on the MAFL Online site.)

Prudence has 5 bets totalling about 20% of the Fund. Its largest is also on the Dogs, 7.2% in its case, and its riskiest is 1.5% on Melbourne at $3.30.

Hope has just 2 wagers. Its largest and riskiest wagers is 5.7% on West Coast at $3.30, and its other wager is also on an underdog: 4.48% on Port Adelaide.

Line Redux has a record-equalling 5 wagers this weekend, 3 on teams receiving start and 2 on teams giving start.

Chi-squared is supporting a dog again this weekend, though whether it's yet another mongrel dog or merely an underdog is yet to be determined. He has 15.6% on Port Adelaide. The evidence does not bode well for this wager given the data in the table below, coupled with the knowledge that he's tipping Port Adelaide by just 3 points.

As you can see, he's 0 from 5 for wagers on teams that he's tipped by 4 points or fewer. Still, based on the wisdom of (generally near-broke) gamblers, I guess that makes him 'due'.

Ready Reckoner

This weekend's Ready Reckoner looks remarkably like this:

For the first time since Round 12, no Investor has an interest - at least on MAFL grounds - in the Friday night fixture. Saturday is, however, moderately important to everyone but MIN#002, and Sunday is screamingly important to everyone except MIN#017.

Tip-top Tipping

On tipping we have no unanimous favourites this week. Here are the details:

  • Carlton are 10-3 favourites over the Roos. None of the top 5 tipsters is siding with the Roos.
  • The Dogs are 8-5 favourites over Fremantle. Freo's only support amongst the top tipsters comes from STM II, who did tip Essendon to beat Hawthorn at $5 in Round 7, but surely can't be expected to prevail on a team currently at $11.
  • Geelong are 10-3 favourites over Adelaide. Amongst the top tipsters only Shadow favours Adelaide.
  • St Kilda are 12-1 favourites over Sydney, with Sydney's sole supporter being HSH.
  • Collingwood are 7-6 favourites over Brisbane. The Lions count Shadow and STM II amongst their supporters.
  • Richmond are 10-3 favourites over Melbourne, though the Dees do have Shadow's and Silhouette's vote.
  • Hawthorn are 8-5 favourites over Port Adelaide. Port have a majority of the top 5 tipsters selecting them, however, as Shadow, Silhouette and STM II have lined up behind them. ELO is tipping the Hawks, but only by 4 points, making this its Game of the Round.
  • Essendon are 12-1 favourites over West Coast. Once again HSH finds itself in the lonely part of the tipping convention. Chi, though, is tipping the Dons by just a point, making this his Game of the Round.

A Fine Line

On line betting this week, Chi and ELO are of one mind (though I suspect Chi's not contributing much to that entity). They're both implicitly tipping the Roos, Fremantle, Geelong, Sydney, Lions, Melbourne, Port, and West Coast.