And Now The Contest Begins

This weekend, for Investors, everything changes. All Funds are now active and, as it happens, all Funds are active. New Heritage has four bets; Prudence has three; Chi-squared, Hope and Line Redux have two each. Only two games are wager-free - Port v Adelaide and Melbourne v Geelong - the first because Chi eventually opted for Port rather than Adelaide by 1 point, and the second because not even a MAFL Fund could hold its nose long enough to wager on the Dees at $11 up against the Cats.

In aggregate, a little over 15% of funds are in play for those with the Recommended portfolio.

West Coast and Brisbane, in particular, will carry the hopes of those with the Recommended portfolio. To a lesser extent, so too will Sydney and Hawthorn, the Roos and the Bulldogs.

Before I move on from wagering considerations I feel duty-bound to note that the Dees have now moved to $13 and the Cats to $1.01. In terms of the data I have, no team has ever previously been as slender-chanced as the Dees. Even at the original offer of $11, imagine what the Heritage Fund would have thrown at the Dees this weekend had this Fund still been active. (For old times' sake - whatever that means - I ran the Heritage Fund algorithm on the current round. It would have wagered almost 15% on the Dees as well as 7% on the Roos and 2% on the Bulldogs. I don't really miss the Heritage Fund.)

On the line market the Dees are only being given 58.5 start, which I think is a tad underdone when you consider that they received 75.5 points start last year in Round 3 when they were away to the Cats and at $12 and, more relevantly, 60.5 start in Round 19 when they were at home to the Cats and priced at just $10.

On tipping:

  • Collingwood are favoured 12-1 over the Roos, and only Home Sweet Home is opting for the Roos. That said, both ELO and Chi have the Pies as only 2 point favourites, in ELO's case making this its Game of the Round.
  • Carlton are 11-2 favourites over last year's premiers, Hawthorn. BKB is opting for Carlton because, with the Blues and the Hawks equal favourites at noon on Wednesday, BKB aligns itself with CTL's Carlton tip. (A couple of weeks back, when Freo and Adelaide were equal favourites, I forgot to apply this tie-breaking rule for BKB. I've since corrected this, giving BKB an Adelaide tip for this game - as it turned out, a correct tip.)
  • West Coast are 8-5 favourites over Freo. All of our top 5 tipsters except STM II are with the Eagles.
  • Essendon are 9-4 favourites over the Lions. BKB is the only top 5 tipster opting for the Lions.
  • Port Adelaide are 7-6 favourites over Adelaide. Chi has vacillated over this game all week, swapping between Port by 1 point (with a 10%+ wager) and Adelaide by the same margin (but without a bet). Despite not having a wager (perhaps because of it), Chi has this as his Game of the Round. Amongst the top 5 tipsters only Silhouette is tipping Adelaide.
  • Sydney are 8-5 favourites over Richmond. Amongst the top 5 tipsters only STM II is tipping Richmond.
  • Geelong are 12-1 favourites over Melbourne. Once again, only Home Sweet Home feels compelled to support the underdog.
  • St Kilda are 12-1 favourites over the Dogs, where, yet again, it's HSH that's out on its own.

On line betting, Chi's with the Roos, Carlton, West Coast, Essendon, Adelaide, Richmond, Melbourne and the Dogs; ELO's with the Roos, Hawthorn, West Coast, Essendon, Port Adelaide, Sydney, Melbourne and the Dogs.