We Now Have Hope

This week we ratchet up another level as the Hope Fund comes on stream and starts out with a couple of bold bets - 5.42% on Essendon @ $2.90 and 4.6% on the friendless Freo @ $2.25 - and one apparently safer bet of 2.59% on the Dogs @ $1.68.

The Line Redux Fund adds two more games to the list of those in which Investors have a financial interest by lobbing 5% at Hawthorn giving 22.5 start to West Coast, and another 5% at Geelong giving 38.5 start to Brisbane.

In total then, much as I'd foreshadowed on the site earlier in the week, we've about 12.6% of the Hope Fund and 10% of the Line Redux Fund at risk.

On tipping, the favourites are more heavily supported by our tipsters in just five of the eight matches. The details are as follows:

  • St Kilda are favoured over Port Adelaide 10-3. ELO is tipping the Saints by just 2 points making this its Game of the Round.
  • Collingwood are favoured over Essendon 8-5, though Chi and ELO are tipping only about a 1 goal margin.
  • West Coast are favoured over Hawthorn 9-4 despite heavy Hawk victories being predicted by BKB, ELO and Chi.
  • The Roos are favoured 13-0 over Richmond.
  • Sydney are favoured 12-1 over Fremantle though Chi predicts the Swans by just 3 points making this his Game of the Round.
  • Geelong are favoured 12-1 over the Lions, Easily Impressed II being the sole Lions adherent, a consequence of its successfully tipping them last weekend.
  • The Bulldogs are favoured 12-1 over Carlton. In this game it's Easily Impressed I that's the outlier, here because Carlton won and the Dogs lost last weekend.
  • Melbourne are favoured 7-6  over Adelaide.

Chi bagged 5 from 8 on line betting last weekend to take him to just 15 from 32 from the season. ELO managed just 4 from 8 but remains at a healthy 20 from 32 for the season. Chi's and ELO's Mean Absolute Prediction Errors reflect this difference in line betting performance: Chi's on 34.6 points per game and ELO's on 31.3 points per game, just 0.8 points behind BKB.

Chi's Line Bets are: Port Adelaide (probably - we've no market yet), Essendon, West Coast, Richmond, Fremantle, Brisbane Lions, Western Bulldogs and Melbourne.

ELO's Line Bets are: St Kilda (again, probably), Essendon, Hawthorn, Kangaroos, Sydney, Brisbane Lions, Western Bulldogs and Melbourne.